;;types of carbon that are put into the atmosphere breed [ EmissionsC ] breed [ Ocean-RespirationC] breed [ Landplant-RespirationC ] breed [ Landsoil-RespirationC ] breed [ AtmosphereC ] ;; the pool of carbon we need to count breed [OceansurfaceC] turtles-own [land? air? ocean? oceansurface? sediment? ] globals [ ;;sources of carbon Landplant-Respiration Landsoil-Respiration Ocean-Respiration atmospherec-initial atmospherec-post atmosphere-change oceansurfacec-current pHinitial pH Calcium-Shelled_Organismsnew oceanabsorption Landplant-Biomasschange Landplant-Biomassinitial ;;pools of carbon Oceandeep-C Landdeep-C Landfossil-C Landsoil-C Oceansediment-C Atmosphere-C Landplant-Biomass ;; Ocean-Biomass Ocean-Biomass-Current ;;sinks Ocean-Photosynthesis Landplant-Photosynthesis ;; used by the program year ] patches-own [ atmosphere? ] to setup2010 ca color-patches ;; initialize carbon pools and exchanges set Ocean-Photosynthesis 60 + ( 60 * (Add_Ocean_Photosynthesizers / 100 ) ) set Ocean-Respiration 60 ;; set Ocean-Biomass 1000 ;; measured in megatons, not gigatons!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! set Landplant-Biomass (550 + (Add_Forest * 0.0175)) set Landplant-Biomassinitial Landplant-Biomass set Landsoil-Respiration ((550 / Landplant-Biomass) * 60 ) set Landdeep-C 0 set Landfossil-C 10000 set Landsoil-C 2300 set Oceandeep-C 3700 ask patch 0 15 [ sprout-AtmosphereC 800 [ set shape "tinydot" set color blue + 3 set heading 180 set air? true set ocean? false set sediment? false] ] ask patch 19 4 [ sprout-OceansurfaceC 1000 [ set shape "tinydot" set color blue - 2 set air? false set ocean? false set land? false set oceansurface? true set sediment? false ] ] set year 2010 set oceansurfacec-current count turtles-on patches with [ pcolor = blue + 1 ] set atmospherec-initial 800 set pHinitial 8.14 set pH pHinitial set Landplant-Biomass (Landplant-Biomass - (Landplant-Biomass * ( %_of_forest_cleared_yearly / 100))) do-plots end to setup1710 ca color-patches ;; initialize carbon pools and exchanges set Ocean-Photosynthesis 60 + ( 60 * (Add_Ocean_Photosynthesizers / 100 ) ) set Ocean-Respiration 60 ;; set Ocean-Biomass 1000 ;; measured in megatons, not gigatons!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! set Landplant-Biomass (700 + (Add_Forest * 0.0175)) set Landplant-Biomassinitial Landplant-Biomass set Landsoil-Respiration ((700 / Landplant-Biomass) * 60 ) set Landdeep-C 0 set Landfossil-C 10000 set Landsoil-C 2300 set Oceandeep-C 3700 ask patch 0 15 [ sprout-AtmosphereC 660 [ set shape "tinydot" set color blue + 3 set heading 180 set air? true set ocean? false set sediment? false] ] ask patch 19 4 [ sprout-OceansurfaceC 900 [ set shape "tinydot" set color blue - 2 set air? false set ocean? false set land? false set oceansurface? true set sediment? false ] ] set year 1710 set oceansurfacec-current count turtles-on patches with [ pcolor = blue + 1 ] set atmospherec-initial 660 set pHinitial 8.25 set pH pHinitial set Landplant-Biomass (Landplant-Biomass - (Landplant-Biomass * ( %_of_forest_cleared_yearly / 100))) do-plots end to color-patches ask patches [ if pycor < -8 and pxcor < -9 [set pcolor white set atmosphere? false ] ;; landdeep if pycor < 2 and pycor >= -8 and pxcor < -9 [set pcolor brown - 3 set atmosphere? false ];; landfossil if pycor < 4 and pycor >= 2 and pxcor < -9 [set pcolor brown - 2 set atmosphere? false ];; landsoil if pycor = 4 and pxcor = 15 [ set pcolor brown - 2 set atmosphere? false ] if pycor < 5 and pycor >= 4 and pxcor < -9 [set pcolor green set atmosphere? false ] ;; landplants if pycor < 6 and pycor >= 5 and pxcor < -28 and pxcor > -30 [set pcolor green set atmosphere? false ] ;; tree if pycor < 6 and pycor >= 5 and pxcor < -26 and pxcor > -28 [set pcolor green set atmosphere? false ] ;; tree if pycor = 4 and pxcor = -15 [ set pcolor brown - 2 set atmosphere? false ] if pycor < -12 and pxcor >= -9 [set pcolor brown + 2 set atmosphere? false ] ;; oceansediment if pycor < 4 and pycor >= -12 and pxcor >= -9 [set pcolor blue - 1 set atmosphere? false];; oceandeep if pycor < 5 and pycor >= 4 and pxcor >= -9 [set pcolor blue + 1 set atmosphere? false ] ;; oceansurface if pycor >= 5 [set pcolor blue + 3 set atmosphere? true ];; atmosphere if pycor < 6 and pycor >= 4 and pxcor < -18 and pxcor > -23 [set pcolor black set atmosphere? false ] ;; emissions if pycor < 9 and pycor >= 6 and pxcor < -21 and pxcor > -23 [set pcolor black set atmosphere? false ] ;; smoke stack ] end to go if ( ticks = years + 1 ) [ stop ] set atmospherec-initial count turtles-on patches with [ pycor > 4 ] set Landplant-Biomassinitial Landplant-Biomass set Landplant-Biomass ( Landplant-Biomass - ( Landplant-Biomass * ( %_of_forest_cleared_yearly / 100))) set Landplant-Biomasschange ( Landplant-Biomassinitial - Landplant-Biomass) ;;; plant Resp ask patch -27 5 [sprout-Landplant-RespirationC Landplant-Biomasschange [set shape "tinydot" set color yellow set heading 0 fd 1 set air? false set land? true set oceansurface? false set sediment? false ]] ;;; ocean Resp ask patch 23 5 [sprout-Ocean-RespirationC Ocean-Respiration [set shape "tinydot" set color black set heading 0 fd 1 set air? false set land? false set oceansurface? false set ocean? true set sediment? false ] ] ;; factory ask patch -22 8 [sprout-EmissionsC Emissions [set shape "factory" set size .5 set color black set heading 0 fd 1 set air? false set land? true set oceansurface? false set sediment? false ] ] ;;; half of plant resp ask patch -29 5 [sprout-Landplant-RespirationC 0.5 * .1 * Landplant-Biomass [set shape "tinydot" set color black set heading 0 fd 1 set air? false set land? true set oceansurface? false set sediment? false ] ] ;;; half of plant resp ask patch -27 5 [sprout-Landplant-RespirationC 0.5 * .1 * Landplant-Biomass [set shape "tinydot" set color black set heading 0 fd 1 set air? false set land? true set oceansurface? false set sediment? false ] ] ask patch -15 4 ;;; soil resp [sprout-Landsoil-RespirationC Landsoil-Respiration * ( Landplant-Biomassinitial / Landplant-Biomass ) [set shape "tinydot" set color black set heading 0 fd 1 set air? false set land? true set oceansurface? false set sediment? false ] ] ;;carbon sinks ask n-of ( .2 * Landplant-Biomass ) turtles with [ ycor > 4 ] [ die ] ;n-of ( 0.2 * Landplant-Biomass ) ;; if year = 2010 and Landplant-Biomass < Landplant-Biomass-Max [ set Landplant-Biomass Landplant-Biomass + ( .3 * emissions) ];; not using -max anymore ;; if year = 2010 [ set Landplant-Biomass ( Landplant-Biomass + ( .3 * emissions )) ];; not using -max anymore let greaterthan3 ( emissions - 3 ) let atmosphericc ( count turtles-on patches with [ pycor > 4 ] ) if ( year = 2010 and greaterthan3 <= 0 ) [ ask n-of ( ( .3 * emissions ) * (Landplant-Biomass / 550 * ( atmosphericc / 1000 ))) turtles with [ pycor > 4 ] [ die ] ] if (year = 1710) [ set Landplant-Biomass ( Landplant-Biomass - ( .3 * emissions)) ] ;; burning wood and other deforestation ;; set Ocean-Photosynthesis ((Ocean-Biomass-Current / 16.666666) * ( oceansurfacec-current / 1000 )) ;; set Ocean-Respiration (Ocean-Biomass-Current / 16.666666) ;; if ( Add_Ocean_Photosynthesizers > 0 ) [ ask n-of ((Ocean-Biomass-Current - Ocean-Biomass ) * .12 ) turtles-on patches with [ pcolor = blue + 1 ] [die ] ] ;;;; I use * .12 because ratio of landplants/ocean and ratio of land PS/ ocean ps (ocean appears 12 times more efficient :) ! ;; if ( Add_Ocean_Photosynthesizers < 0 ) [ ask patch -9 4 [ sprout-OceansurfaceC ((Ocean-Biomass - Ocean-Biomass-Current ) * .12 ) ;; [ set shape "tinydot" set size 1.5 set color white set air? false set land? false set oceansurface? true set sediment? false ] ] ] ;; set Ocean-Biomass Ocean-Biomass-Current set atmospherec-post count turtles-on patches with [ pycor > 4 ] if ( ticks > 0) [ set atmosphere-change ((( atmospherec-post - atmospherec-initial) / ( atmospherec-initial)) / 10 ) ] ;; I hate the 1.1 fudge factor (it's gone) ;; anthropogenic C has increased ocean C by only 1-2%, though it is has increased atmospheric C by about 38%. see hall 2009. see also Revelle Buffer Effect. ;; but that's ppm. what about net in GT? that's up about 21% set oceanabsorption ( atmosphere-change * oceansurfacec-current) ;; if ( oceanabsorption < ( .01 * oceansurfacec-current ) ) [set oceanabsorption ( .01 * oceansurfacec-current ) ];; rounds up small numbers let ratio ( oceansurfacec-current / atmosphericc ) if ( ratio > 1.2 ) [ ask n-of ( oceanabsorption ) turtles with [ pycor = 4 ] [ set ycor 5 + random 9 set air? true set oceansurface? false] ] if ( ratio < ( .8 * ( count turtles-on patches with [ pycor > 4 ] ) )) [ set oceanabsorption .01 * oceansurfacec-current ] if ( atmosphere-change > 0 ) [ask n-of oceanabsorption turtles with [ pycor > 4 ] [ setxy ( 30 - random 21 ) 4 set shape "factory" set size .5 set color blue - 1 set heading 90 set air? false set ocean? false set land? false set oceansurface? true set sediment? false ] ] if ( atmospherec-initial > .8 * oceansurfacec-current) [ask n-of ( 0.02 * atmospherec-initial ) turtles with [ pycor > 4 ] [ setxy ( 30 - random 21 ) 4 set shape "factory" set size .5 set color blue - 1 set heading 90 set air? false set ocean? false set land? false set oceansurface? true set sediment? false ] ] if ( atmospherec-initial < .8 * oceansurfacec-current) [ ask n-of ( 0.02 * oceansurfacec-current ) turtles with [ pycor = 4 ] [ set ycor 5 + random 9 set air? true set oceansurface? false] ] if ( Add_Every_Year = true ) [ set Ocean-Photosynthesis ( Ocean-Photosynthesis + ( 60 * (Add_Ocean_Photosynthesizers / 100 ) ))] if ( year = 2010) [ ask n-of ( Ocean-Photosynthesis * ( oceansurfacec-current / 1000 ) ) turtles with [ ycor > 4 ] [ die ]] if ( year = 1710 ) [ask n-of ( Ocean-Photosynthesis * ( oceansurfacec-current / 900 ) ) turtles with [ ycor > 4 ] [ die ]] set pH ((-0.0011 * oceansurfacec-current )+ 9.24 ) if ( oceansurfacec-current >= 900 ) [ set Calcium-Shelled_Organismsnew (Calcium-Shelled_Organisms * ( 900 / oceansurfacec-current ) ) ] ;; Calcification changed to Calcium-Shelled_Organisms if ( oceansurfacec-current < 900 ) [ set Calcium-Shelled_Organismsnew Calcium-Shelled_Organisms ] ask n-of ( Calcium-Shelled_Organismsnew ) turtles with [ oceansurface? = true ] [ setxy (3 + random 26) (-15 + random 3 ) set shape "coccolithophore" set color white set size 1 set land? false set ocean? false set air? false set oceansurface? false set sediment? true ] set oceansurfacec-current count turtles-on patches with [ pcolor = blue + 1 ] ask turtles [ move-carbon ] do-plots end to move-carbon if (land? = true) [set heading heading - (0 - random 10) fd 1] if (ocean? = true) [set heading heading + (0 - random 10) fd 1] if (air? = true) [set heading heading - (180 - random 10) fd 1] if (oceansurface? = true) [ setxy ( -9 + random 39) 4 ] if (ycor > 14) [ set ycor (11 - random 3) ] ;; stopping wrap-around above water if (xcor > 29) and ycor >= 5 [set xcor 29 - random 20] if (xcor < -29) [set xcor -29 + random 20] if (oceansurface? = false) and ( ycor < 6) and ( sediment? = false ) [set ycor 6 + random 8 ] end to do-plots set-current-plot "Atmospheric and Ocean Surface Carbon" set-current-plot-pen "AtmosphereC" plot count turtles-on patches with [ pycor > 4 ] set-current-plot-pen "OceanSurfaceC" plot oceansurfacec-current set-current-plot "Ocean pH" set-current-plot-pen "pH" plot pH if ( ticks > 0) [ set atmosphere-change ((( atmospherec-post - atmospherec-initial) / ( atmospherec-initial))* 1.1 ) ] ;; I hate the 1.1 fudge factor (it's gone) ;; anthropogenic C has increased ocean C by only 1-2%, though it is has increased atmospheric C by about 38%. see hall 2009. see also Revelle Buffer Effect. ;; but that's ppm. what about net in GT? that's up about 21% ;; if (atmospherec-post > atmospherec-initial) [ ask n-of (oceansurfacec-change) turtles with [ ycor > 4 ] ;; [ setxy ( -9 + random 20) 4 set shape "star" set size 2 set air? false set ocean? false set land? false set oceansurface? true set sediment? false] ] wait .02 ;; slow the iterations if desired tick end ;; watch button watch one-of EmissionsC ;; with [ ] @#$#@#$#@ GRAPHICS-WINDOW 224 43 783 353 30 15 9.0 1 10 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 -30 30 -15 15 1 1 1 ticks BUTTON 15 67 109 100 2010 levels setup2010 NIL 1 T OBSERVER NIL NIL NIL NIL BUTTON 67 17 155 50 run/stop go T 1 T OBSERVER NIL NIL NIL NIL SLIDER 56 121 161 154 emissions emissions 0 15 1.5 .5 1 NIL HORIZONTAL SLIDER 9 291 213 324 Calcium-Shelled_Organisms Calcium-Shelled_Organisms 0 5 2.25 .25 1 NIL HORIZONTAL PLOT 785 36 1117 250 Atmospheric and Ocean Surface Carbon Years GigaTons of C 0.0 1.0 500.0 1500.0 true true PENS "AtmosphereC" 1.0 0 -11221820 true "OceanSurfaceC" 1.0 0 -13345367 true BUTTON 119 67 213 100 1710 levels setup1710 NIL 1 T OBSERVER NIL NIL NIL NIL SLIDER 24 175 196 208 years years 1 300 300 1 1 NIL HORIZONTAL MONITOR 563 437 788 482 Gigatons of Carbon in the Atmosphere count turtles-on patches with [ pycor > 4 ] 1 1 11 MONITOR 335 437 566 482 Gigatons of Carbon in the Upper Ocean count turtles with [ pcolor = blue + 1] 17 1 11 MONITOR 165 437 335 482 Gigatons of Carbon in Plants Landplant-Biomass 2 1 11 SLIDER 10 227 218 260 %_of_forest_cleared_yearly %_of_forest_cleared_yearly 0 2 0 .1 1 NIL HORIZONTAL SLIDER 4 396 301 429 Add_Ocean_Photosynthesizers Add_Ocean_Photosynthesizers 0 10 0 .5 1 Percent HORIZONTAL PLOT 792 257 992 407 Ocean pH Years pH 0.0 5.0 7.5 8.5 true false PENS "calcification" 1.0 0 -2674135 true "pH" 1.0 0 -2674135 true MONITOR 818 346 875 391 NIL pH 3 1 11 SLIDER 5 359 269 392 Add_Forest Add_Forest 0 8000 0 5 1 Thousand square KM HORIZONTAL TEXTBOX 73 497 990 567 In 2010, you start with a base of 550 Gigatons of Carbon in Plants. You can add forest in units of thousands of square Kilometers. The forest you add is typical of a mixed forest in New Jersey in terms of the Carbon it contains in trees. As long as emissions are occurring and deforestation is not, the amount of Carbon in plants increases every year. This is because some part of the emissions are being turned into the growth of plants.\nIn 1710, you start with a base of 700 Gigatons of Carbon in Plants. You cannot add forest in 1710, and the amount of forest decreases automatically. The rate of decrease is related to the rate of emissions 11 0.0 1 SWITCH 302 396 451 429 Add_Every_Year Add_Every_Year 1 1 -1000 BUTTON 550 568 719 601 NIL watch one-of EmissionsC NIL 1 T OBSERVER NIL NIL NIL NIL @#$#@#$#@ WHAT IS IT? ----------- Carbon Cycle models the fast carbon cycle. The model is intended to examine the effect of human activities on the amount of Carbon in the atmosphere and the upper ocean. Carbon is reported in gigatons. Upper ocean pH is shown. The model can be initialized to two settings: One represents conditions in 2010; the other represents pre-industrial conditions. The 2010 setting allows for growth of terrestrial biomass. Terrestrial biomass decreases in the 1710 scenario to simulate deforestation for fuel and agriculture. HOW IT WORKS ------------ Carbon reservoirs and fluxes, especially for the 2010 scenario, are based on the diagram at http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/CarbonCycle/ (except that I used a terrrestrial plant biomss of 600). The size of the reservoirs are roughly proportionate to the values given in the diagram, although the Deep ocean is somewhat smaller than it should be. The pools of Carbon monitored are the atmosphere, the upper ocean, and the deposition of calcium-shelled organisms. The sources of Carbon are: emissions, ocean photosynthesis, and land plant (forest) photosynthesis. Land plant photosynthesis and respiration are proprtional to land plant biomas. Sinks include ocean respiration, landplant respiration, soil respiration, and tree growth. Soil respiration increases as forest is removed. Calcium-shelled organisms is the long-tern sink of carbon in this model. The amount of calcification can be adjusted, but it is also automatically affected by the concentration of Carbon in the upper ocean. The object that sinks to indicate calcification is a coccolithophore! The absorption of Carbon by the ocean is affected by the ratio of Carbon in the ocean surface over the ratio of Carbon in the atmsophere. Carbon can go in either direction depending on this ratio. I used 8/10 as a base ratio. HOW TO USE IT ------------- Use the diagram at http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/CarbonCycle/ as a reference. Forest can be added to the initial land plant biomass. Ocean photosynthesis can be increased initially or yearly. Hints: If you have difficulty adjusting a slider to an exact value, you can right click it to edit it and type in the value you desire. THINGS TO NOTICE ---------------- You can make the model crash by adjusting the value of a variable higher or lower. What happens to cause the crash? Output of emissions is given the shape of little factories. Once in the atmosphere, all carbon has the same probability of being removed by photosynthesis or absorption by the ocean. Once in the ocean, it has the same probability of any carbon there of being sequestered by calcification. THINGS TO TRY ------------- Try to determine what average yearly emissions are necessary to transform the 1710 world to the 2010 world. Also try to develop various scenarios to mitigate the current Carbon problem. Calcification and terrestrial biomass growth can be manipulated for this purpose EXTENDING THE MODEL ------------------- A problem to overcome: under low emissions and high absorption, the ocean becomes depauperate of Carbon. I neede a feedback to return Carbon sequested in biomass and sedimentation. NETLOGO FEATURES ---------------- RELATED MODELS -------------- Watercycle; Global Carbon Cycle; Greenhouse Effect CREDITS AND REFERENCES ---------------------- http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/CarbonCycle/ http://www.climate.gov/#climateWatch U.S. DOE. 2008. Carbon Cycling and Biosequestration: Report from the March 2008 Workshop, DOE/SC-108, U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science (http://genomicscience.energy.gov/carboncycle/report/). IPCC, 2000 - Nebojsa Nakicenovic and Rob Swart (Eds.) Cambridge University Press, UK. pp 570 IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A. (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 104 pp. Climate Change 2001: The Physical Science Basis, Summary for Policymakers, IPCC Hall, T/ 2008. Can Ocean Carbon Uptake Keep Pace with Industrial Emissions? http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/hall_03/ http://www.waterencyclopedia.com/Bi-Ca/Carbon-Dioxide-in-the-Ocean-and-Atmosphere.html Much of the coding was adapted from Watercycle.nlogo, so I thank that anonymous modeler. Holian, Gary, Andrei P. Sokolov and Ronald G. PrinnUncertainty in Atmospheric CO2 Predictions from a Parametric Uncertainty Analysis of a Global Ocean Carbon Cycle Model Report No. 80 September 2001 http://web.mit.edu/globalchange/www/MITJPSPGC_Rpt80.pdf Keith, H., Mackey, B. G. & Lindenmayer, D. B. 2010 Re-evaluation of forest biomass carbon stocks and lessons from the world’s most carbon-dense forests. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 106, 11 635–11 640. 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