;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;
;;; DECLARATIONS
;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;
;extensions [sound]       ;;only included for fun.  Turned off for now
breed [ people ]

globals [
  time 
        
  ;Counters and statistics for person-to-person conversations (internal influence)
  contacts                ;; number of contacts made with other individuals
  old-contacts            ;; previous total
  contacts-per-time       ;; how many contacts made this time period
  conversation-starts     ;; total number of conversations
  old-conversation-starts ;; previous total
  starts-per-time         ;; how many conversations made this time period - number ended
  conversation-ends       ;; total number ended
  old-conversation-ends   ;; previous total
  ends-per-time           ;; how many conversations made this time period - number ended
  active-conversations    ;; total number of conversations currently active
  friend-total            ;; keep track of conversations - strangers, acquaintences, buddies
  
  ;External influence counters and statistics
  externals               ;; total number of external mass media contacts 
] 

;Attributes for patches (other than Netlogo-defined attributes
patches-own [
 intensity               ;; used to create "fitness"-like component for external influence
 original-color          ;; used in conjunction with external influence
]

;People have attributes
people-own [
  kind                   ;; 1 - 5 are "innovator","early-tech1","early-majority","late-majority","laggard" (Rogers).  Added 0 & 6 extremes.
  acceptance             ;; arbitrary units
  change-agent?          ;; change agent can meet with multiple people - (NOT YET MODELED)
  initiator?             ;; keep track of who initiates the conversation
  partner                ;; The person that is our current partner in a conversation
  media?                 ;; Keep track of whether listening to mass media presentation
  start-time             ;; when current conversation starts
  end-time               ;; when current conversation will end
  num-conversations      ;; cumulative number of conversations
  total-interact-time    ;; cumulative time spent in conversation
  num-externals          ;; cumulative number of interactions with external media
  total-external-time    ;; cumulative time spent with external media
  memory                  ;; list of partners

]

;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;
;;; SETUP
;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;

to setup
  ca
  setup-globals       ;initialize to 0
  setup-env           ;patches
  setup-people        ;individuals
  setup-plot          ;output parameters
end

;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;
to setup-globals
  random-seed seed
  set time 0
  
  ;internal influence globals
  set contacts 0
  set old-contacts 0
  set contacts-per-time 0.0
  set conversation-starts 0
  set old-conversation-starts 0
  set starts-per-time 0
  set conversation-ends 0
  set old-conversation-ends 0
  set ends-per-time 0
  set active-conversations 0
  set friend-total 0
  
  ;external influence globals
  set externals 0
end

;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;
to setup-env
  ;all patches set to default initially - intensity not used on black patches in current version of model
  ask patches [
    set pcolor black
    set intensity (random 100)
    set original-color black
  ]
    
  ;Mass media center for first new technology if turned on by switch - Set up as a square of color violet
  if External-Tech1? [
    let x int(x-adopt / 100 * max-pxcor)
    let y int(y-adopt / 100 * max-pycor)
    let s int(s-adopt / 100 * (max-pxcor + 1))
    ask patches [
      if (pxcor > x - s) and (pxcor < x + s) 
         and (pycor > y - s) and (pycor < y + s) [ 
         set pcolor violet  
         set original-color violet
      ]
    ]
  ]
  
  ;Mass media center for second new technology (if switch turned on) to challenge first technological innovation - magenta square
  if External-Tech2? [
    let x int(x-disrupt / 100 * max-pxcor)
    let y int(y-disrupt / 100 * max-pycor)
    let s int(s-disrupt / 100 * (max-pxcor + 1))
    ask patches [
      if (pxcor > x - s) and (pxcor < x + s) 
         and (pycor > y - s) and (pycor < y + s) [ 
         set pcolor magenta
         set original-color magenta 
      ]
    ]
  ]

  ; Patch intensity is randomly assigned to each patch.  To make more realistic,
  ; use the diffuse function to spread the value of each intensity to its nearest
  ; neighbors; the value 1 is the max. diffusion coefficient.  Repeat this
  ; diffusion step "Smoothness" times (set by user) to create a smooth topology.
  ; This applies to all patches.
  ;
  ; Rescale is like converting between degrees Centigrade and Fahrenheit - scale
  ; range from min to max => 0 to 100.  Then recolor the patches.  Only do this for
  ; non-black patches.  Thus, the intensity topology exists over the entire grid
  ; but it is only observed and used in the external patch areas.
  if Smoothness > 0 [
    repeat Smoothness [ diffuse intensity 1 ] ;smoothness function
    rescale
    recolor
  ]
  
end

to rescale ;adapted from fitness model in Netlogo Community Models
   let highest max [ intensity ] of patches
   let lowest min [ intensity ] of patches
   ask patches [ 
     set intensity (((intensity - lowest) * 100) / (highest - lowest)) 
   ]
   let nhighest max [ intensity ] of patches
   let nlowest min [ intensity ] of patches
   print (word "intensity range from " lowest " to " highest " shifted to " nlowest " to " nhighest)

end

to recolor
   ask patches [
       ifelse original-color = violet
          [ set pcolor scale-color violet intensity 0 100 ]
          [ ifelse original-color = magenta 
               [ set pcolor scale-color magenta intensity 0 100 ]
               [ set pcolor original-color ] ;ignore for black patches
          ]
   ]  
end

;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;
to setup-people

  create-people total-population [
    setxy random-pxcor random-pycor ; centers on patch
    set end-time 0 
    set total-interact-time 0 
    set num-conversations 0
    set total-external-time 0
    set num-externals 0
    set partner nobody
    set shape "person"
    set change-agent? FALSE
    set initiator? FALSE
    set media? FALSE
    set memory []

    ;determine kind of individual - from technology fanatic to hopeless.  Change agents not used yet in Version 10 of model
    let kind-prob (random 100)
    ifelse (kind-prob < cumulative-prob-tech2) 
      [ set-tech2 
        if random 100 < tech2-agent [ set-change-agent ]
      ] ;have to have latest technology
      [ ifelse (kind-prob < cumulative-prob-tech1) 
        [ set-tech1 
          if random 100 < tech1-agent [ set-change-agent ] 
        ] ;innovator
        [ ifelse (kind-prob < cumulative-prob-early-adopter) [ set-early-adopter ] ;accept easily
          [ ifelse (kind-prob < cumulative-prob-early-majority) [ set-early-majority ]  ;accept fairly easily
            [ ifelse (kind-prob < cumulative-prob-late-majority) [ set-late-majority ]  ;reluctant
              [ifelse (kind-prob < cumulative-prob-laggard) [ set-laggard ]  ;very reluctant
                [ set-hopeless ] ; ignore setting for cumulative-prob-hopeless & just place remainder here
              ]
            ]
          ]
        ]
      ]
    ]
end

to set-tech2
   set kind 0
   set acceptance tech2
   set color red
end

to set-tech1
   set kind 1
   set acceptance tech1
   set color orange
end

to set-early-adopter
   set kind 2
   set acceptance earlyadopter
   set color yellow
end

to set-early-majority
   set kind 3
   set acceptance earlymajority
   set color lime
end

to set-late-majority
   set kind 4
   set acceptance latemajority
   set color cyan
end

to set-laggard
   set kind 5
   set acceptance laggard
   set color blue
end

to set-hopeless
   set kind 6
   set acceptance hopeless
   set color violet
end

to set-change-agent
  set change-agent? TRUE
  set shape "face happy"
end

;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;
;;; OUTPUT PROCEDURES
;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;

;;;
;;; PLOTTING PROCEDURES
;;;

to setup-plot
  ;Histogram - don't set limits - let model autoset
  set-current-plot "Adoption Type"
  set-histogram-num-bars 7
  update-plot-type
end

to update-plot-pop
  ;update time series
  let total count people
  let t2 count people with [kind = 0]
  let t1 count people with [kind = 1]
  let potentials ( total - t2 - t1 )
  set-current-plot "Populations"
  set-current-plot-pen "Total"
  plot total
  set-current-plot-pen "Potentials"
  plot potentials
  set-current-plot-pen "Adopters"
  plot (t1 + t2)
  set-current-plot-pen "Tech2"
  plot count people with [kind = 0]
  set-current-plot-pen "Tech1"
  plot count people with [kind = 1]
  set-current-plot-pen "EarlyAdopter"
  plot count people with [kind = 2]
  set-current-plot-pen "EarlyMajority"
  plot count people with [kind = 3]
  set-current-plot-pen "LateMajority"
  plot count people with [kind = 4]
  set-current-plot-pen "Laggard"
  plot count people with [kind = 5]
  set-current-plot-pen "Hopeless"
  plot count people with [kind = 6]
end

to update-plot-stat  
  ;contacts, conversations and meetings
  set-current-plot "Acquaintance Level"
  set-current-plot-pen "Acquaintance Level"
  ifelse (conversation-starts > 0)
    [ plot friend-total / conversation-starts ]
    [ plot 0 ]
end

to update-plot-meet
  ;update meetings histogram
  set-current-plot "Conversations per Person"
  set-current-plot-pen "Internal"
  histogram [num-conversations] of people
  ;Don't care about externals yet
  ;set-current-plot-pen "External"
  ;histogram [num-externals] of people
end

to update-plot-type
  ;update tech1 type histogram
  set-current-plot "Adoption Type"
  set-current-plot-pen "kind"
  histogram [kind] of people
end

;;;
;;; MONITOR PROCEDURES
;;;

to update-monitors
  ;reset counters for each year
  set contacts-per-time (contacts - old-contacts)
  set starts-per-time (conversation-starts - old-conversation-starts)
  set ends-per-time (conversation-ends - old-conversation-ends)
  set active-conversations (conversation-starts - conversation-ends)
  set old-contacts contacts
  set old-conversation-starts conversation-starts
  set old-conversation-ends conversation-ends
end

;;;
;;; Movie 
;;;

to make-movie

   ;where to store movie
   user-message "Save movie file with a .mov extension"
   let path user-new-file 
   if not is-string? path [ stop ] ;;terminate if user cancels
   
   ;run model
   setup
   movie-start path
   movie-grab-view
   repeat movie-frames [
     go
     movie-grab-view ]
     
   ;export
   movie-close
   user-message (word "Movie exported to" path)
   
   ;for fun
   ;sound:play-drum "ACOUSTIC SNARE" 64
   ;sound:play-note "TRUMPET" 60 64 1    ;note 60 is middle C with 0 - 127 as range, velocity is volume from 0 - 127, duration in seconds
end

;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;
;;; RULES OF INTERACTION
;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;

to check-external-adoption
  ;adoption check (Tech1)
    ifelse ( media? = FALSE ) [
      ;Keep track of total number of externals made
      set externals (externals + 1)
      set media? TRUE
      set partner self
      set start-time time
      set end-time round( random-exponential listening-time ) + time
      print (word time ": external influenced adoption initiated for " who " to last until " end-time)
    ][
      ifelse time >= end-time [
        set media? FALSE
        set partner nobody
        let prob-to-adopt (([intensity] of patch-here / 100) * prob-to-adopt-tech1-external)
        if random-float 100 < (1.0 / acceptance) * prob-to-adopt [
          set-tech1
        ]
        move-away
        set num-externals (num-externals + 1)
        set total-external-time (end-time - start-time + total-external-time)
        print (word time ": " who " of type " kind " has finished adoption mass media session with probability of adopting " prob-to-adopt )
      ][
        print (word time ": " who " is listening to mass media presentation for tech1-type innovation")
      ]
    ]
end

to check-external-disruption
  ;disruption check (Tech2)
    ifelse ( media? = FALSE ) [
      ;Keep track of total number of externals made
      set externals (externals + 1)
      set media? TRUE
      set partner self
      set start-time time
      set end-time round( random-exponential listening-time ) + time
      print (word time ": external influenced disruption initiated for " who " to last until " end-time)
    ][
      ifelse time >= end-time [
        set media? FALSE
        set partner nobody
        let prob-to-adopt (([intensity] of patch-here / 100) * prob-to-adopt-tech1-external)
        if random-float 100 < (1.0 / acceptance) * prob-to-adopt [
          set-tech2
        ]
        move-away
        set num-externals (num-externals + 1)
        set total-external-time (end-time - start-time + total-external-time)
        print (word time ": " who " of type " kind " has finished disruption mass media session with probability of adopting " prob-to-adopt )
      ][
        print (word time ": " who " is listening to mass media presentation for tech2-type disruptive innovation")
      ]
    ]
end

to move
    rt random-float 360
    fd movement
    setxy pxcor pycor  ;centers on patch
end

to move-away
    rt random-float 180
    jump int(s-adopt / 100 * max-pxcor) ;move away from media center
    setxy pxcor pycor ;centers on patch
end

to initiate
  ;partner with someone on own patch who it not already partnered
  ifelse (any? other people-here with [partner = nobody]) [

     ;Keep track of total number of contacts made
     set contacts (contacts + 1)

     ;may not actually strike up a conversation with this partner.  The contact rate is adjusted
     ;with the "movement" parameter and the "prob-conversation" parameter.  Note also that the
     ;user controls the length of each conversation which will also impacts contact rate.
     ifelse (random-float 100) < prob-conversation [
         converse
     ][
         print (word time ": no conversation initiated by " who)
     ]
  ][
    print (word time ": no possible parters for " who)
  ]
end

to converse
       let friend 0
       let me self
       
       ;Choose one of the eligible people to partner with - may want to consider other partnering strategies
       ;here - such as all on one's patch for a facilitator / hub or one of patch + neighborhood.  Change agents, etc.
       set partner one-of other turtles-here with [partner = nobody]
           
       ;Set partner's attribute to me.  
       ask partner [ set partner me ]
       
       ;Put in memory and partner's memory if not already there
       ifelse (member? partner memory = true) 
         [ set friend friend + 1 ]
         [ set memory lput partner memory ]
       ifelse (member? self [memory] of partner = true) 
         [ set friend friend + 1 ]
         [ ask partner [ set memory ( lput self [memory] of partner ) ]]
       
       ;This person is the initiator, automating rendering the partner to a subordinate role
       set initiator? TRUE
       ask partner [ set initiator? FALSE ]
       
       ;keep track of time conversation started
       set start-time time
       ask partner [ set start-time time ]
       
       ;set time to end conversation.  For future changes, might consider multiple person interactions
       ;with some partners leaving early and not adopting technology
       let conversation-end round((random-float conversation-length) + time )
       set end-time conversation-end
       ask partner [ set end-time conversation-end ]

       ;Set patch of conversation - since xcor and ycor are real numbers, patches may not exactly
       ;coincide with position of partners
       ifelse (friend = 2)
         [ ask patch-here [ set pcolor sky ]]
         [ ifelse (friend = 1)
            [ ask patch-here [ set pcolor blue ]]
            [ ask patch-here [ set pcolor pink ]]
         ]

       ;keep track of conversations started in simulation and the level of acquaintance
       set conversation-starts (conversation-starts + 1)
       set friend-total (friend-total + friend)
       
       print (word time ": conversation between ID " who " of type " kind " with memory list " memory " and ID "
             [who] of partner " of type " [kind] of partner " with memory list " [memory] of partner " at level " friend " until " end-time " at [" xcor "," ycor "]")
end

to interact
    ifelse (time <= end-time) [
       ifelse (time > start-time) [
         print (word time ": ongoing conversation between " who " and " [who] of partner)
       ][
         print (word time ": match already established between " who " and " [who] of partner)
       ]
    ][
       
       ;Decide whether to adopt as conversation comes to a close
       ifelse kind > 1 and [kind] of partner = 1 [
         if tech1-switch [
           if random-float 100 < (1.0 / acceptance) * tech1-coefficient-acceptance [
               set-tech1
           ]
         ]
       ][
         ifelse kind > 1 and [kind] of partner = 0 [
           if tech2-switch [
             if random-float 100 < (1.0 / acceptance) * tech2-coefficient-acceptance [
                set-tech2
             ]
           ]
         ]
         [
              print (word time ": No changes for ID " who " of type " kind " as partner " [who] of partner " with type " [kind] of partner)
         ]
       ]
       
       ;stat collection
       set num-conversations (num-conversations + 1)
       set total-interact-time (end-time - start-time + total-interact-time)
       ifelse initiator? [
          set conversation-ends (conversation-ends + 1)
          ask patch-here [ set pcolor  original-color ]
          print (word time ": initiator " who " ends conversation with " [who] of partner)
       ][
          print (word time ": recipient " who " ended conversation with initiator " [who] of partner)
       ]
       set partner nobody
       rt random-float 360
       jump 5 * movement

    ]
end
    
to rethink-adoption
    ifelse random-float 100 < prob-tech1-to-potential [
      set-early-adopter
      print (word time ": " who " reneged tech1 to early adopter")
    ][
      if tech2-switch and random-float 100 < prob-tech1-to-tech2 [
        set-tech2
        print (word time ": " who " changed from tech1 to tech2 innovation")
      ]
    ]
end
  
to rethink-disruption
    ifelse random-float 100 < prob-tech2-to-potential [
      set-early-adopter
      print (word time ": " who " reneged on tech2 back to early adopter ")
    ][
      if tech1-switch and random-float 100 < prob-tech2-to-tech1 [
        set-tech1        
        print (word time ": " who " changed back from tech2 to tech1 innovation")
      ]
    ]
end


;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;
;;; RUNTIME 
;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;
to go
  set time time + 1
    
  ;People who are not currently in a conversation will:
  ; (a) think about their current adoption status, possibly changing their mind about an adoption or disruption.  They may
  ;     return to a potential, whereby they are subject to the influences of internal or external factors.
  ;     If they are already a "technologist," they may adopt the disruption if they are already an tech1 or adopt 
  ;     the adoption if already a tech2. Note that this latter case is based on "personal reflection" rather than 
  ;     due to external or internal influences.
  ; (b) move a little
  ; (c) check to see if they are on a "media center" patch, in which case they may adopt after hearing the message
  ; (d) they check to see if someone is around to talk to about technologies
  ;If already paired, they update their type.
  ask people [
      without-interruption [
        ;external influence is only for those whose kind is not the same as the media center.  
        if External-Tech1? and [pcolor] of patch-here >= 110.0 and [pcolor] of patch-here < 120.0 and kind != 1 [
          check-external-adoption
        ]
        if External-Tech2? and [pcolor] of patch-here >= 120.0 and [pcolor] of patch-here < 130.0 and kind != 0 [
          check-external-disruption
        ]
        
        ;internal influence - if partner = self, mass media is in effect, so internal influence is ignored in
        ;areas of mass media.  May need to reconsider this assumption.
        ifelse partner = nobody [  
            if kind = 1 [rethink-adoption]
            if kind = 0 [rethink-disruption]
            move
            if [pcolor] of patch-here = black [ initiate ]
        ][
            if partner != self [
              interact
            ]
        ]
      ]
   ]  
  
  update-plot-pop
  update-plot-stat
  update-plot-meet
  update-plot-type
  update-monitors
  
end
@#$#@#$#@
GRAPHICS-WINDOW
389
64
903
599
17
17
14.4
1
10
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
-17
17
-17
17
0
0
1
ticks

CC-WINDOW
5
694
1124
789
Command Center
0

MONITOR
964
10
1238
55
Time
time
0
1
11

BUTTON
502
12
557
56
NIL
Setup
NIL
1
T
OBSERVER
NIL
NIL
NIL
NIL

BUTTON
728
12
790
55
On/Off
go
T
1
T
OBSERVER
NIL
NIL
NIL
NIL

BUTTON
558
12
613
56
Step
go
NIL
1
T
OBSERVER
NIL
NIL
NIL
NIL

SLIDER
416
607
632
640
total-population
total-population
0
1000
200
1
1
people
HORIZONTAL

SLIDER
17
33
326
66
prob-conversation
prob-conversation
0
100
100
0.1
1
percent
HORIZONTAL

SLIDER
16
69
325
102
conversation-length
conversation-length
0
100
1
1
1
time units
HORIZONTAL

PLOT
964
55
1238
249
Populations
Simulated Time
Number of People
0.0
10.0
0.0
10.0
true
true
PENS
"Tech2" 1.0 2 -2674135 true
"Tech1" 1.0 2 -955883 true
"EarlyAdopter" 1.0 2 -6459832 true
"EarlyMajority" 1.0 2 -13840069 true
"LateMajority" 1.0 2 -11221820 true
"Laggard" 1.0 2 -13345367 true
"Hopeless" 1.0 2 -8630108 true
"Potentials" 1.0 0 -7500403 true
"Adopters" 1.0 0 -2064490 true
"Total" 1.0 0 -16777216 true

PLOT
962
372
1236
492
Conversations per Person
Number of Interactions
Frequency
0.0
100.0
0.0
10.0
true
false
PENS
"Internal" 1.0 1 -13791810 true
"External" 1.0 1 -5825686 true

SLIDER
345
684
538
717
cumulative-prob-tech1
cumulative-prob-tech1
0
100
5
1
1
%
HORIZONTAL

SLIDER
345
646
538
679
cumulative-prob-tech2
cumulative-prob-tech2
0
100
0
1
1
%
HORIZONTAL

SLIDER
345
18
494
51
seed
seed
0
100000000
73880597
1
1
NIL
HORIZONTAL

SLIDER
16
144
326
177
tech1-coefficient-acceptance
tech1-coefficient-acceptance
0
100
100
1
1
NIL
HORIZONTAL

SLIDER
15
292
325
325
tech2-coefficient-acceptance
tech2-coefficient-acceptance
0
100
0
1
1
NIL
HORIZONTAL

SLIDER
796
16
949
49
movement
movement
0
10
1
1
1
patches/move
HORIZONTAL

SLIDER
15
219
326
252
prob-tech1-to-tech2
prob-tech1-to-tech2
0
5
0
0.1
1
percent
HORIZONTAL

SLIDER
15
182
326
215
prob-tech1-to-potential
prob-tech1-to-potential
0
5
0
0.1
1
percent
HORIZONTAL

SWITCH
17
109
170
142
tech1-switch
tech1-switch
0
1
-1000

SWITCH
174
109
326
142
tech2-switch
tech2-switch
1
1
-1000

SLIDER
14
328
324
361
prob-tech2-to-potential
prob-tech2-to-potential
0
5
0
0.1
1
percent
HORIZONTAL

SLIDER
13
364
324
397
prob-tech2-to-tech1
prob-tech2-to-tech1
0
5
0
0.1
1
percent
HORIZONTAL

TEXTBOX
92
440
241
458
External Influence Parameters
11
0.0
0

PLOT
1034
543
1235
663
Acquaintance Level
Simulated Time
No.
0.0
100.0
0.0
2.0
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TEXTBOX
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MOVIE!
make-movie
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@#$#@#$#@

WHAT IS IT? 
-----------

This is a model of the DIFFUSION OF INNOVATIONS, one segment of the entire INNOVATION
PROCESS that includes (1) invention, (2) R&D, (3) production of innovations, (4) dissemination of these innovations, and (5) various stages of a product's life cycle such as obsolescence and eventual retirement. It focuses on the diffusion and adoption of new technologies based on "internal influences" (e.g., word-of-mouth) and "external influences" (e.g., mass media). Individuals are divided into three groups: "Potentials" who have not yet adopted any new technologies, "Adopters" who are using a new technology and "Disrupters" who are using an even newer technology than "Adopters." 

Individuals move through the state space, where they meet and interact with other individuals. If a "Potential" interacts with an "Adopter," he or she may become an "Adopter" based on probabilities set by the modeler. The same holds true for "Potentials" interacting with "Disrupters." There are also parameters for "Adopters" to "renege" and return to "Potentials" or to accept the even newer "Disrupter" technology and discard their "Adopter" innovation. Similar parameters are available for "Disrupters." 

Mass media impacts may also be studied. The impact of mass media is based on the length of time a user spends in a particular region (using different colors to represent "strength" of the influence, as well as differences between "Adopter" technologies and "Disrupter" technologies.)

Toggle switches are provided to control each simulation so that a study may focus on internal or external influences of one technology in isolation. Note that interactions between individuals will not occur inside a "mass media" region. 


HOW IT WORKS 
------------

(1) Demography 

The population size is set by the modeler and does not change during each run.  What changes are the percentages of each type of user: 

(a) "Tech2" super-geeks who must have the latest of everything
(b) "Tech1" geeks, or "Innovators" in the typical parlance of innovation theory
(c) "Early Adopters" who will decide to adopt if the idea or technology sounds good
(d) "Early Majority" who are a little hesitant and wait to see what others are doing
(e) "Late Majority" who are very hesitant
(f) "Laggards" who basically wait until the technology is no longer considered innovative
(g) "Hopeless" who will never adopt the technology or idea. 

Note that (b) through (f) correspond to the categories commonly seen in the literature; I have added a new category on either end for more flexibility. These people will be created by pressing the SETUP button and will move around the display interacting with other folks ("internal diffusion") or examining mass media or other general forms of information about the innovation ("external diffusion"). 


(2) Individual Behavior

Individuals who are not currently in a "conversation" will perform a number of steps: 

(a) Think about their current status, possibly changing their mind after accepting a new technology: they may return to a "Potential," whereby they are subject to the influences of internal or external factors. If they are a technologist ("Adopter" or "Disrupter"), they may become a "Disrupter" if they are currently an "Adopter" or an "Adopter" if currently a "Disrupter." Note that these changes are based on "personal reflection" rather than due to external or internal influences. These changes are based on slider values "prob-tech1-to-potential," "prob-tech1-to-tech2," "prob-tech2-to-potential" and "prob-tech2-to-tech1." 

(b) Move a little based on the "movement" slider set in the interface. 

(c) Check to see if they are on a "media center" patch, in which case they may accept a new technology after hearing a "mass media presentation." 

(d) Finally, they check to see if someone is around to talk to about technologies. The "movement" parameter" and "prob-conversation" sliders help determine how often conversations occur - just meeting someone does not guarantee that a conversation about technology occurs. If a conversation does occur, one individual is the initiator and the other the recipient of information. 

If an individual is already paired, he or she will update his or her status. Whether to accept the new technology is based on the slider probability for each technology. This is only checked at the end of the conversation, not once per time unit. These sliders are "tech1-coefficient-acceptance" and "tech2-coefficient-acceptance." However, each of these values is divided by a factor set for each individual's type (see Demographic Parameters below). For example, an "Innovator" may accept the new technology at the general "coefficient-acceptance" level, where as a "laggard" may be given a high resistance factor, say 10, meaning that acceptance is 1/10th of the general "coefficient-acceptance" level. 

(3) Statistics

Output graphs provide a number of summaries for the modeler's use.  In addition, debugging statements are printed to the screen.  These may be saved in other tools (e.g., Excel) for later analysis.


HOW TO USE IT 
-------------
This section describes the model in a little more detail, highlighting each of the buttons and sliders.


(1) Demographic Parameters 

These are set by sliders located below the runtime display. The modeler sets the total population (which remains fixed in size throughout the model run). This population is divided into 7 categories, with a cumulative distribution used to determine the number in each group. For example, "cumulative-prob-tech2" are the "super-geeks" or "Disrupters" who absolutely have to have the latest technology. The slider is set to 0 if there aren't any of these folks in the model. If it is set to some percentage, say 5%, then 5% of the total population will be "super-geeks." 

The next segment, "cumulative-prob-tech1" are the Adopters. If the first group is set to 5, and the modeler wants 8% of the population to be Adopters, then set this slider to 13%. Similarly, set all of the cumulative probabilities so that the last category desired is set to 100%. If there are no "hopeless" members of the population, then both the laggard and hopeless sliders will be at 100%. Note that Rogers and others identify 5 categories of people - Innovators, Early Adopters, Early Majority, Late Majority and Laggards. In this model, these five categories are supplemented by new categories on either end of the spectrum - the "tech2" super-geeks on one side and "hopeless" on the other. 

Next to the "cumulative-prob-*" sliders are sliders for each category indicating a factor that affects the acceptance of a new idea or technology when meeting with other individuals. There are acceptance factors for internal diffusion called "tech1-coefficient-acceptance" and "tech2-coefficient-acceptance" for Adopter and Disrupter technologies, respectively. This value will be divided by the factor for each individual user type, so that a "1" means accept the technology at the general "tech1" or "tech2" rate, whereas a user value of 5 means only accept the technology at 1/5th of the general rate. 


(2) Internal Influence Parameters 

(a) prob-conversation - Just because individuals meet, it doesn't mean they will exchange information. The combination of this parameter (a percentage) and the movement parameter (see Runtime Setup below) can be used to calibrate the model against analytical or system dynamics models of diffusion.
(b) conversation-length - This parameter decides how long people are "tied up" in a conversation, but it does not affect the probability of accepting a new technology. It basically just adds a delay factor to the model since the acceptance/rejection of a technology or idea doesn't occur until the end of the conversation.
(c) tech1-switch and tech2-switch - these determine if any internal diffusion will occur in a given model run. The recommendation is to stick to only one innovation ("tech1") until the inner workings of the model are well understood.
(d) tech1-coefficient-acceptance and tech2-coefficient-acceptance - this is a generic number for accepting the innovation at the end of a conversation, with values from 0 to 100. However, this number is divided by a factor for each demographic category. The higher the demographic category number, the lower the chance of accepting the innovation.
(e) prob-tech1-to-poential and prob-tech2-to-potential - a "renege" factor 
(f) prob-tech1-to-tech2 and prob-tech2-to-tech1 - probability of switching from one technology to the other 
(g) tech1-agent and tech2-agent - not yet incorporated into model 


(3) External Influence Parameters 

(a) Smoothness - this parameter is used to create the background for external diffusion of tech1 and tech2 innovations.
(b) listening-time - how long the user stays inside the mass media area. Again, this is just a delay factor since acceptance/rejection of the innovation is determined at the end of the period of time the user remains in the area.
(c) prob-to-adopt-tech1-external and prob-to-adopt-tech2-external - acceptance factors 
(d) External-Tech1? and External-Tech2? - turn external diffusion on and off
(e) x-adopt, y-adopt, s-adopt and x-disrupt, y-disrupt, s-disrupt - used to set the bounds for the region of mass media. (x,y) places the center of the region, while (s) builds an area from (x-s,y-s),(x+s,y-s),(x+s,y+s),(x-s,y+s). 


(4) Outputs 

(a) Simulated Time - keeps track of time steps
(b) Populations - total number of individuals of each type (7 types of individuals plus potentials vs adopters/disrupters, as well as total) 
(c) Adopter Type - histogram of types of users
(d) Meetings - histogram of two-person conversations (with counters for the number of contacts made in a time period, how many started in that time period, how many ended, and number of active conversations.
(e) Acquaintance Level (and counter) - measure of familiarity of the individuals in a conversation. 


(5) Setup 

(a) Setup - initializes model based on the parameters described above
(b) Step - increment model one step at a time
(c) Step N - move model N steps forward
(d) On/Off - run model until clicked again
(e) Seed - random number seed for each run
(f) Movement - how far individuals move in each step 


(6) Movie 

Use slider to set number of frames to collect. Then press movie button to create a movie. This does not work in the Applet form of the model.

THINGS TO NOTICE 
----------------

Best idea is to run one technology at a time ("Adopter") in word-of-mouth mode, followed by external mode, followed by a mixed mode. These results can be compared to analytical models discussed in the REFERENCES section below. It is recommended that the "tech2" innovation not be used until the modeler is well versed on the behavior of simpler cases. 

THINGS TO TRY 
-------------

Note change in rate of technology adoption based on parameters. The "expected" behavior is a logistic curve for a single technology introduced by word-of-mouth. A strictly "mass media" introduction will spread more rapidly, shooting up to the maximum after a small delay (depending upon parameter settings). To see this, turn on "tech1" internal diffusion while turning off "tech2" and all "external diffusion" switches.  Run the model for a set length of time with the Step 50 button.  Then turn off "tech1" internal diffusion, turn on "tech1" external diffusion with the entire screen representing mass media (x and y parameters set to 0, s parameter set to 100).  Run for the same period of time and note the differences in the shape of the population graphs.

Adding a second technology after a short delay leads to all sorts of interesting behavior. In some cases, the newer technology will not be able to gain a foothold. If reneging is added, or if "Adopters" can switch to the "Disrupter" technology, the technology curves become quite complex. According to theory, at least, a "Disrupter" technology often needs to hit a specific niche in order to gain a foothold once an "Adopter" technology has saturated the market (e.g., "WII" vs Playstation 3 vs. Xbox 360 marketing strategies). 

EXTENDING THE MODEL 
-------------------

(1) Change agents - Rogers (see references) talks about the importance of change agents to facilitate adoption of new technologies or ideas. In the current model, two individuals will meet; adoption is based on parameters such as length of time of the conversation. However, some users could be initialized as change agents, in which case they might require much less time to convince certain categories of users.
 
(2) Internet - The classic diffusion models differentiate individual contacts from mass media. The Internet, however, is really a combination of the two, providing "intimate" conversations with a single user, but marketing to a wide audience. 


NETLOGO FEATURES 
----------------

Early versions of the model set the "adoption category" of individuals directly in code. The technique was suggested to me on the Community Web Pages, and so I have included it here because I thought it was an interesting programming construct. (It is actually not used for this purpose any more, so the code segment below has not been updated to the latest version of Netlogo.) 

The idea is that some folks are "innovators" and will try anything new. Some will never adopt anything new, and others are spread out into other groups. Rogers (see references below) discusses a normal distribution with 5 categories such as 1 & 2 (the early adopters) = 5 (adopt with a lot of resistance) and two middle categories, 3 & 4. This is referred to as the "kind-structure" in the model. Category 1 is set by the number of "adopters" + "disrupters" - those who already have the new innovation at the start of the simulation. To determine the rest of the population, an array is set up in the initialization part of the model: 

=============
set kind-structure [ [ 2 12 ] [ 3 47 ] [ 4 81 ] [ 5 100 ] ]
============= 
The first entry is the category type; the second is a probability. This is used in the following reporter routine: 
=============
to-report determine-kind [ probability-index ]
let this_kind first ( first ( filter [ last ? >= probability-index ] kind-structure ) )
print this_kind+":"+probability-index+":"+filter [last ? >= probability-index] kind-structure
report (this_kind)
end
============= 
The "let" statement was graciously explained to me through the community web pages. It took awhile to convince myself it was working, but it is a very useful structure for this and similar demographic modeling in which the inputs are often categories assigned probabilities. This routine is called during setup in this model to determine the kind of adopter: 
=============
to setup-people 
cct-people initial-potentials [
set total-population initial-potentials + total-population
setup-people-parms
setup-potential
set kind determine-kind ( random 100 )
] 
end
============= 

A good use of the "kind" attribute is to assign different adoption rates based on the kind of person under consideration. 

TODO 
----

Some thoughts on future versions: 

(1) As noted above, change agents that impact several colleagues simultaneously. Sliders are provided for change agents, but the behavior has not yet been added to the model.
(2) Making use of memory - acceptance changes with familiarity of partner. A familiarity graph is included in the model, but the behavioral changes due to familiarity have not been added.
(3) Mixed mode diffusion - e.g., web-based diffusion seems like a mixture of internal and external diffusion models. 
(4) Social Network Analysis - how fast innovations spread depends on network structure and dynamics ("6 degrees of separation" idea).
(5) Mathematical models of diffusion - idea here is to be able to correlate parameters in various math models of diffusion to the parameters in this simulation. 


CREDITS AND REFERENCES 
----------------------

(1) Other Models 

The framework for this model is based on two great models on the Netlogo web site: 

(a) AIDS - Copyright 1997 Uri Wilensky. All rights reserved. This provided the basic idea of pairing individuals on the same patch. 

(b) Fitness Landscape - Copyright 2006 David McAvity. This model, from the Community Models section of the Netlogo web site, was created at the Evergeen State College, in Olympia Washington as part of a series of applets to illustrate principles in physics and biology. 


(2) References 

This model is actually a small portion of an ongoing effort to understand the "Innovation Process" from the invention of ideas and technologies to their development, diffusion, use and obsolescence. The overall model is being developed through System Dynamics, but agent-based modeling has been very helpful in clarifying ideas concerning the competition and spread of technologies. The background for this work comes from three sources: 

(a) Mahajan, Vijay and Robert A. Peterson, "MODELS FOR INNOVATION DIFFUSION," Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences, Sage Publications, 88 pages. 

(b) Bass, F. M. (1969). "A NEW PRODUCT GROWTH MODEL FOR CONSUMER DURABLES," Management Science, 15, 215-227. 

(c) Rogers, Everett M., DIFFUSION OF INNOVATIONS, 5th Edition, Free Press, 512 pp. 


COPYRIGHT INFORMATION
---------------------

Copyright 2009 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.

Approved for Public Release: Distribution Unlimited (Tracking #09-1575) 

"The author's affiliation with The MITRE Corporation is provided for identification purposes only, and is not intended to convey or imply MITRE's concurrence with, or support for, the positions, opinions or viewpoints expressed by the author." 

The model may be freely used, modified and redistributed provided the copyright and Public Release statements are included and the resulting models are not used for profit. Contact Michael Samuels at mijujoel@ieee.org if you have questions or comments.
 
========================
Last updated: 05/19/2009 
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Line -7500403 true 150 0 150 150

link
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0
Line -7500403 true 150 0 150 300

link direction
true
0
Line -7500403 true 150 150 30 225
Line -7500403 true 150 150 270 225

pentagon
false
0
Polygon -7500403 true true 150 15 15 120 60 285 240 285 285 120

person
false
0
Circle -7500403 true true 109 6 80
Polygon -7500403 true true 105 90 120 195 90 285 105 300 135 300 150 225 165 300 195 300 210 285 180 195 195 90
Rectangle -7500403 true true 127 79 172 94
Polygon -7500403 true true 195 90 240 150 225 180 165 105
Polygon -7500403 true true 105 90 60 150 75 180 135 105
Circle -1184463 true false 126 33 14
Circle -1184463 true false 156 34 13
Line -1184463 false 158 70 167 62
Polygon -1184463 true false 141 63 148 40 154 63
Rectangle -1184463 true false 135 70 160 75
Line -1184463 false 134 70 126 61
Polygon -1184463 true false 58 162 34 196 37 190
Rectangle -16777216 true false 30 180 45 195
Rectangle -16777216 true false 45 180 60 165
Rectangle -16777216 true false 60 180 45 165
Rectangle -16777216 true false 45 165 60 180

plant
false
0
Rectangle -7500403 true true 135 90 165 300
Polygon -7500403 true true 135 255 90 210 45 195 75 255 135 285
Polygon -7500403 true true 165 255 210 210 255 195 225 255 165 285
Polygon -7500403 true true 135 180 90 135 45 120 75 180 135 210
Polygon -7500403 true true 165 180 165 210 225 180 255 120 210 135
Polygon -7500403 true true 135 105 90 60 45 45 75 105 135 135
Polygon -7500403 true true 165 105 165 135 225 105 255 45 210 60
Polygon -7500403 true true 135 90 120 45 150 15 180 45 165 90

square
false
0
Rectangle -7500403 true true 30 30 270 270

square 2
false
0
Rectangle -7500403 true true 30 30 270 270
Rectangle -16777216 true false 60 60 240 240

star
false
0
Polygon -7500403 true true 151 1 185 108 298 108 207 175 242 282 151 216 59 282 94 175 3 108 116 108

target
false
0
Circle -7500403 true true 0 0 300
Circle -16777216 true false 30 30 240
Circle -7500403 true true 60 60 180
Circle -16777216 true false 90 90 120
Circle -7500403 true true 120 120 60

tree
false
0
Circle -7500403 true true 118 3 94
Rectangle -6459832 true false 120 195 180 300
Circle -7500403 true true 65 21 108
Circle -7500403 true true 116 41 127
Circle -7500403 true true 45 90 120
Circle -7500403 true true 104 74 152

triangle
false
0
Polygon -7500403 true true 150 30 15 255 285 255

triangle 2
false
0
Polygon -7500403 true true 150 30 15 255 285 255
Polygon -16777216 true false 151 99 225 223 75 224

truck
false
0
Rectangle -7500403 true true 4 45 195 187
Polygon -7500403 true true 296 193 296 150 259 134 244 104 208 104 207 194
Rectangle -1 true false 195 60 195 105
Polygon -16777216 true false 238 112 252 141 219 141 218 112
Circle -16777216 true false 234 174 42
Rectangle -7500403 true true 181 185 214 194
Circle -16777216 true false 144 174 42
Circle -16777216 true false 24 174 42
Circle -7500403 false true 24 174 42
Circle -7500403 false true 144 174 42
Circle -7500403 false true 234 174 42

turtle
true
0
Polygon -10899396 true false 215 204 240 233 246 254 228 266 215 252 193 210
Polygon -10899396 true false 195 90 225 75 245 75 260 89 269 108 261 124 240 105 225 105 210 105
Polygon -10899396 true false 105 90 75 75 55 75 40 89 31 108 39 124 60 105 75 105 90 105
Polygon -10899396 true false 132 85 134 64 107 51 108 17 150 2 192 18 192 52 169 65 172 87
Polygon -10899396 true false 85 204 60 233 54 254 72 266 85 252 107 210
Polygon -7500403 true true 119 75 179 75 209 101 224 135 220 225 175 261 128 261 81 224 74 135 88 99

wheel
false
0
Circle -7500403 true true 3 3 294
Circle -16777216 true false 30 30 240
Line -7500403 true 150 285 150 15
Line -7500403 true 15 150 285 150
Circle -7500403 true true 120 120 60
Line -7500403 true 216 40 79 269
Line -7500403 true 40 84 269 221
Line -7500403 true 40 216 269 79
Line -7500403 true 84 40 221 269

x
false
0
Polygon -7500403 true true 270 75 225 30 30 225 75 270
Polygon -7500403 true true 30 75 75 30 270 225 225 270

@#$#@#$#@
NetLogo 4.0.4
@#$#@#$#@
@#$#@#$#@
@#$#@#$#@
@#$#@#$#@
@#$#@#$#@
default
0.0
-0.2 0 0.0 1.0
0.0 1 1.0 0.0
0.2 0 0.0 1.0
link direction
true
0
Line -7500403 true 150 150 90 180
Line -7500403 true 150 150 210 180

@#$#@#$#@