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## WHAT IS IT?

This is a model that simulates the flow of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere. It uses the Systems Dynamics Modeler to implement ordinary differential equations (EDO). These equations describe the interaction of three variables (industrialization, deforestation and reforestation) and how they affect the behavior of CO2.

## HOW IT WORKS

The relations between the variables and the initial conditions are defined in the Systems Dynamics Modeler. Each flow is calculated in the terms of the variables that are linked to it.

The relationships between the variables and the initial conditions are defined in the Systems Dynamics Modeler.

Each flow is calculated in terms of the variables that are linked to it.

Industrialization, deforestation and reforestation are represented by variables I, D and R respectively.

Industrialization varies according to the variable INDUS.

Deforestation varies according to the pests, fires and agriculture represented by the variables PESTS, FIRES and AGRICULTURE respectively. It also varies by industrialization, this relationship is represented by the variable DEF_INDUS.

Reforestation varies according to forestation and reforestation, represented by the variables FORES and DEFOR. Reforestation and industrialization are also connected by the variable REF_INDUS.

Finally, the CO2 represented by C varies according to variables I, D and R, in proportion of CO2_INDUS, CO2_DEFOR and CO2_REFOR respectively.

## HOW TO USE IT

Press the SETUP button.

Press the GO button to execute the model.

Adjust the PROB_INDUS slider to determine the probability that INDUS varies.
Adjust the PROB_PESTS slider to determine the probability that PESTS varies.
Adjust the PROB_FIRES slider to determine the probability that FIRES varies.
Adjust the PROB_AGRIC slider to determine the probability that AGRICULTURE varies.
Adjust the PROB_DEF_INDUS slider to determine the probability that DEF_INDUS varies.
Adjust the PROB_FORES slider to determine the probability that FORES varies.
Adjust the PROB_DEFOR slider to determine the probability that DEFOR varies.
Adjust the PROB_REF_INDUS slider to determine the probability that DEF_INDUS varies.

To return to the initial values press SETUP.

## THINGS TO NOTICE

See the CO2, INDUSTRIALIZATION, DEFORESTATION and REFORESTATION monitors to know the current value of each variable.

See the graphs to see how the values of each variable change over time.

## THINGS TO TRY

Change the value of the sliders, run the model and observe what happens with the CO2. Explore the effect of each one keeping the rest constant.

Adjust the INDUS slider to change the value of the variable that affects industrialization.
Adjust the PESTS, FIRES, AGRICULTURE and DEF_INDUS slider to change the value of the variables that affect deforestation.
Adjust the FORES, REFOR and REF_INDUS slider to change the value of the variables that affect reforestation.

## EXTENDING THE MODEL

Try to add some other factors in the Systems Dynamics Modeler that influence the behavior of CO2. You can add a variable that affects the growth rate of another.

## NETLOGO FEATURES

This model uses the Systems Dynamics Modeler.

## RELATED MODELS

Earth Science → Climate Change

## CREDITS AND REFERENCES

Data of involved variables:

* https://datos.bancomundial.org/indicador/EN.ATM.CO2E.PC?locations=CL
* http://www.conaf.cl/nuestros-bosques/bosques-en-chile/catastro-vegetacional/
* http://www.conaf.cl/incendios-forestales/incendios-forestales-en-chile/estadisticas-historicas/
* http://www.conaf.cl/nuestros-bosques/bosques-en-chile/estadisticas-forestales/
* http://www.ine.cl/estadisticas/medioambiente/informes-anuales