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Disease_in_groups

by Talaya White (Submitted: 06/27/2009)

[screen shot]

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BASIC RULES AND BEHAVIORS

1. Group Together
1.1 Set heading toward an people near you.
1.2 If there's somesone too close, head away.
1.3 Wiggle and move forward.

2. Spread Disease
2.1 Figure out who's nearby with the disease.
2.2 For each person around you who's sick, you have a 20% chance of catching it.
2.3 Recover to a removed population a percentage of the time.
2.4 Reenter the susceptible population a percentage of the time.

HOUSEKEEPING

1. The infection doesn't start until you press the "Infect" button. This lets you run the grouping code for a little while before you set a disease loose.

2. The clock and the graph don't start until you start an infection. This means that the clock only counts the duration of the outbreak and not the grouping code run before the infection is started.

3. The clock and the graph stop automatically when the infection dies out so that you can see exactly how long the outbreak lasted.

4. The clock does not reset unless you push the "Infect" button when there is not already an outbreak. This means you can push "Infect" multiple times during an outbreak without resetting the clock.

5. The graph is reset only when you hit "Clear Graph" on the interface.

5. The model takes into account that the more people around you who are sick, the higher Your chances of getting sick.

6. There is temporary immunity. Think of it as getting the flu. When you recover you're immune to whatever strand you had. But all too soon the strand changes and you're no longer immune.

STUFF TO THINK ABOUT AND PLAY WITH

What happens if people don't group together?
What happens if they do?
What if they start out in a group but spread out after they get a disease?
What if immunity was permanent?
What if more people start off sick?

What does this tell us about big cities and rural communities?
Do the immune people serve any function to this model?
What sorts of diseases does this look like?
Do you think the model is realistic?
In what ways is it realistic and what ways isn't it?
Did you expect the results you got?

WORDS TO KNOW

Population - The people.
Susceptible - The people who are able to get sick.
Infected - People who are sick.
Recovered - People who were sick but aren't anymore.
Immune - People who can't get sick.
Removed - People who, in a normal epidemic model, don't count and who we ignore. This could be because they're immune, dead, or otherwise can't get sick or make other people sick.

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