globals [ waiting-area ;; patches where the consumers will wait window-list ;; to track moving average of consumer utility ] breed [ goods good ] ;; white box shaped turtles breed [ consumers consumer ] ;; light brown person shaped turtles directed-link-breed [ desires desire ] ;; links between consumers and goods goods-own [ price ;; price of goods set between 50 and max-price in increments of 5 likes-count ;; count of how many consumers like the good dislikes-count ;; count of how many consumers dislike the good amount-purchased ;; number of purchases for the good during a tick period-purchased ;; number of purchases for the good in an evaluation period best-seller? ;; best-seller status of the good during the evaluation period times-best-seller ;; how many times the good became a best seller ] consumers-own [ budget ;; budget set between 50 and max-budget in increments of 5 like ;; the good that is most favored by the consumer dislike ;; the good that is least favored by the consumer basket ;; goods purchased in a tick utility ;; happiness acquired through desire min-desire-to-buy ;; random value from 0 to max-desire-to-buy-threshold ] desires-own [ level ;; the level of desire by the consumers for a good ] to setup clear-all ;; set up two tables for goods foreach (list min-pycor (min-pycor + 1) (max-pycor - 1) max-pycor) [ x -> ask patches with [pycor = x] [ set pcolor 26 ] ] ;; set area between the two tables as the waiting area for consumers set waiting-area patches with [ ( pxcor > min-pxcor and pxcor < max-pxcor ) and ( pycor > min-pycor + 2 and pycor < max-pycor - 2 ) ] ;; calls procedures to make goods and consumers make-goods make-consumers ;;;;; VISUALIZATION SETUP ;;;;; ;; label the goods with their the number of likes, dislikes, and their price ask goods [ set label ( word likes-count "," dislikes-count "," price ) set label-color black ] ;; label the consumers with their budget ask consumers [ set label budget set label-color white ] ;; setup the moving-average report for the plot set window-list [] ;; initialize an array of zeros with length equal to the smoothing window while [ length window-list < smoothing-window ] [ set window-list lput 0 window-list ] reset-ticks end to make-goods ;; first 15 goods at the top table, next 15 at the bottom table ifelse products <= 15 [ let cuts (world-width + 1) / (products + 1) foreach (range (min-pxcor - 1 + cuts) (max-pxcor + 1) cuts) [ x -> create-goods 1 [setxy x (max-pycor - 0.5)] ] ] [ let cuts (world-width + 1) / 16 foreach (range (min-pxcor - 1 + cuts) (max-pxcor + 1) cuts) [ x -> create-goods 1 [setxy x (max-pycor - 0.5)] ] set cuts (world-width + 1) / (products - 14) foreach (range (min-pxcor - 1 + cuts) (max-pxcor + 1) cuts) [ x -> create-goods 1 [setxy x (min-pycor + 0.5)] ] ] ask goods [ set shape "box" set color white set price one-of ( range 50 ( max-price + 5 ) 5 ) ;; set price of goods set best-seller? false ;; none of the goods are best-sellers at the start set times-best-seller 0 ;; initialize count for best-sellers ] end to make-consumers create-consumers customers [ set shape "person" set color 36 set budget one-of ( range 50 ( max-budget + 5 ) 5 ) ;; set budget of consumers set basket [] ;; give consumers empty baskets for shopping set utility 0 ;; initialize utility set min-desire-to-buy random max-desire-to-buy-threshold ;; set threshold value of desire to buy ;; move the consumer to the waiting area move-to one-of waiting-area ;; if a consumer is alread positioned on the patch, transfer to a different patch while [ any? other consumers-here ] [ move-to one-of waiting-area ] setup-likes-and-dislikes ;; calls the procedure to setup likes and dislikes of the consumer ] end to setup-likes-and-dislikes create-desires-to goods [ set hidden? not show-desires? ] ;; set up desire links for goods set like one-of goods ;; set one of the goods as a like set dislike one-of goods ;; set one of the goods as a dislike ;; if the dislike is the same as the like, choose a different good while [ dislike = like ] [ set dislike one-of goods ] ;; update likeability counts of goods for visualization purposes ask like [ set likes-count likes-count + 1 ] ask dislike [ set dislikes-count dislikes-count + 1 ] end to go ask goods [ set amount-purchased 0 ] ;; reset purchases count to 0 every tick ask consumers [ set label budget ] ;; make budget initialization visible for all consumers per tick before the purchasing starts ask consumers [ set utility 0 ;; reset happiness every tick set basket [] ;; reset shopping basket every tick ;; call temporary shopping variables let spend budget let option 0 while [ (spend > 0) and (option < count goods) ] [ ;; if consumer can spend and has options to buy let choice item option sort-on [(- level)] my-desires ;; the chosen good is the option according to desire ifelse [ level ] of choice > min-desire-to-buy [ ;; if the consumer's desire is sufficient to buy ifelse spend >= [ price ] of [ end2 ] of choice [ ;; if the good is affordable go-to-good choice ;; go to the good of choice set spend spend - [ price ] of [ end2 ] of choice ;; deduct price of good to budget set label spend ;; update label to show how much money the consumer has left ask [ end2 ] of choice [ set amount-purchased amount-purchased + 1 ;; record the purchase ] set utility utility + [ level ] of choice ;; increase happiness by the desire for the good ask choice [ set level level - 1 ] ;; decrease in desire for the good because it is already bought if member? [ end2 ] of choice basket [ ask choice [ set level level - 1 ] ;; diminishing marginal returns for same-day re-purchase ] set basket lput [ end2 ] of choice basket ;; put purchased good in basket ] [ ;; if the good is unaffordable, look at the next best option set option option + 1 ] ] [ ;; if the current option does not reach required desire, none of the next will ;; end while loop by being unable to spend set spend 0 ] ] move-around ;; transfer to a different spot in the waiting area ;;;;; NATURAL INCLINATIONS ;;;;; ;; if favorite was not bought, anticipate future purchase for it if (not member? like basket) and (random-float 1.0 < inclination-probability) [ ask out-desire-to like [ set level level + 1 ] ] ;; a consumer is inclined to hate their dislike further if random-float 1.0 < inclination-probability [ ask out-desire-to dislike [ set level level - 1 ] ] ] word-of-mouth radius-of-influence tick update-best-seller ask goods [ set period-purchased period-purchased + amount-purchased ;; add purchases for the tick to the period counter ] ;;;;; VISUALIZATION ;;;;; ;; scale colors to show best sellers ask goods [ set color scale-color blue times-best-seller ( max [ times-best-seller ] of goods + 1 ) 0 set label-color scale-color black times-best-seller 0 ( max [ times-best-seller ] of goods + 1 ) ] ;; slide the window for the moving-average set window-list lput (mean [ utility ] of consumers) window-list set window-list but-first window-list end to reset-transactions ask desires [ set hidden? not show-desires? ] ask consumers [ set utility 0 ;; reset happiness set basket [] ;; reset shopping basket ask my-desires [ set level 0 ] ] ask goods [ set best-seller? false ;; none of the goods are best-sellers set times-best-seller 0 ;; initialize count for best-sellers set amount-purchased 0 ;; initialize amount purchased set period-purchased 0 ;; initialize period best-seller ;; reset scale colors set color scale-color blue times-best-seller ( max [ times-best-seller ] of goods + 1 ) 0 set label-color scale-color black times-best-seller 0 ( max [ times-best-seller ] of goods + 1 ) ] ;; setup the moving-average report for the plot clear-all-plots set window-list [] while [ length window-list < smoothing-window ] [ set window-list lput 0 window-list ] reset-ticks end ;;;;; MOVEMENT PROCEDURES ;;;;; ;; go to the good being purchased to go-to-good [ choice ] face [ end2 ] of choice forward distance [ end2 ] of choice end ;; go to an empty spot at the waiting area to move-around let wait-here one-of waiting-area while [ any? turtles-on wait-here ] [ set wait-here one-of waiting-area ] facexy [ pxcor ] of wait-here [ pycor ] of wait-here forward distancexy [ pxcor ] of wait-here [ pycor ] of wait-here end ;;;;; INFLUENCE PROCEDURES ;;;;; ;; influence other consumers within the area of the circle with radius r ;; choose only a percent of the consumers to initiate influence to word-of-mouth [ radius ] ask n-of ( count consumers * positive-influencers ) consumers [ positive-influence radius ] ask n-of ( count consumers * negative-influencers ) consumers [ negative-influence radius ] end to positive-influence [ radius ] let set-aside-color [ color ] of like ;; set aside scaled color for the liked good ask self [ set color green ] ;; tag positive influencer ask like [ set color green ] ;; tag good being shared positively ask other consumers in-radius radius [ set color 44 ;; tag consumers listening to the influencer ask out-desire-to one-of goods with [color = green] [ if random-float 1.0 < belief-probability [ ;; believe according to the probability set level level + 1 ] ] ] ;; return original colors before tagging ask like [ set color set-aside-color ] ask consumers in-radius radius [ set color 36 ] end to negative-influence [ radius ] let set-aside-color [ color ] of dislike ;; set aside scaled color for the disliked good ask self [ set color red ] ;; tag negative influencer ask dislike [ set color red ] ;; tag good being shared negatively ask other consumers in-radius radius [ set color 44 ;; tag consumers listening to the influencer ask out-link-to one-of goods with [color = red] [ if random-float 1.0 < belief-probability [ ;; believe according to the probability set level level - 1 ] ] ] ;; return original colors before tagging ask dislike [ set color set-aside-color ] ask consumers in-radius radius [ set color 36 ] end ;; evaluate best-seller after the evaluation period to update-best-seller if ticks mod period-in-days = 1 [ ask goods [ set best-seller? false ] ;; at the end of an evaluation period, reset status let period-best-seller first sort-on [(- period-purchased)] goods ;; sort goods according to purchases in the period if [period-purchased] of period-best-seller != 0 [ ;; check if highest selling good does have sales ask period-best-seller [ set best-seller? true ;; update status as best seller set times-best-seller times-best-seller + 1 ;; update counter for best-seller ] ] ask goods [ set period-purchased 0 ] ;; at the end of evaluation period, reset purchases ] end @#$#@#$#@ GRAPHICS-WINDOW 213 10 914 844 -1 -1 33.0 1 10 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 -10 10 -12 12 0 0 1 ticks 30.0 BUTTON 30 655 93 688 NIL setup NIL 1 T OBSERVER NIL NIL NIL NIL 1 BUTTON 117 655 180 688 NIL go T 1 T OBSERVER NIL NIL NIL NIL 1 SLIDER 11 83 202 116 products products 2 30 30.0 1 1 goods HORIZONTAL SLIDER 11 192 202 225 customers customers 1 300 100.0 1 1 people HORIZONTAL SLIDER 11 232 202 265 max-budget max-budget 50 1500 1500.0 5 1 Php HORIZONTAL SLIDER 11 123 202 156 max-price max-price 50 1500 1500.0 5 1 Php HORIZONTAL SLIDER 11 558 203 591 radius-of-influence radius-of-influence 0 5 3.0 1 1 NIL HORIZONTAL SLIDER 11 463 203 496 positive-influencers positive-influencers 0 1.0 0.1 0.01 1 NIL HORIZONTAL SLIDER 11 503 203 536 negative-influencers negative-influencers 0 1.0 0.5 0.01 1 NIL HORIZONTAL CHOOSER 924 175 1030 220 period-in-days period-in-days 7 30 60 90 180 360 1 TEXTBOX 52 58 202 76 Product Variables 14 125.0 1 TEXTBOX 47 168 197 186 Consumer Variables 14 125.0 1 TEXTBOX 34 437 201 471 Word-of-Mouth Variables 14 125.0 1 SLIDER 11 598 203 631 belief-probability belief-probability 0 1 0.7 0.01 1 NIL HORIZONTAL SLIDER 11 305 202 338 inclination-probability inclination-probability 0 1 0.2 0.01 1 NIL HORIZONTAL PLOT 924 10 1263 160 consumer utility days (ticks) level of utility 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 true true "" "" PENS "mean consumer utility" 1.0 0 -4079321 true "" "plot mean [ utility ] of consumers" "moving average" 1.0 0 -16449023 true "" "plot mean window-list" SLIDER 11 344 203 377 max-desire-to-buy-threshold max-desire-to-buy-threshold 1 100 50.0 1 1 NIL HORIZONTAL TEXTBOX 60 280 181 298 Desire Variables 14 125.0 1 MONITOR 1041 175 1263 232 Current Period Best-Seller first [self] of goods with [best-seller?] 17 1 14 INPUTBOX 1149 97 1260 157 smoothing-window 100.0 1 0 Number BUTTON 40 700 172 733 NIL reset-transactions NIL 1 T OBSERVER NIL NIL NIL NIL 1 SWITCH 40 390 172 423 show-desires? show-desires? 1 1 -1000 BUTTON 1000 380 1087 413 scenario 3 set products 30\nset max-price 1500\nset customers 100\nset max-budget 1500\nset max-desire-to-buy-threshold 50\nset positive-influencers 0.5\nset negative-influencers 0.5\nset radius-of-influence 3\nset belief-probability 0.7\nrandom-seed 10\nsetup NIL 1 T OBSERVER NIL NIL NIL NIL 1 BUTTON 1000 300 1087 333 scenario 1 set products 30\nset max-price 50\nset customers 100\nset max-budget 1500\nset max-desire-to-buy-threshold 50\nset positive-influencers 0.5\nset negative-influencers 0.5\nset radius-of-influence 3\nset belief-probability 0.7\nrandom-seed 10\nsetup NIL 1 T OBSERVER NIL NIL NIL NIL 1 BUTTON 1000 340 1087 373 scenario 2 set products 30\nset max-price 800\nset customers 100\nset max-budget 1500\nset max-desire-to-buy-threshold 50\nset positive-influencers 0.5\nset negative-influencers 0.5\nset radius-of-influence 3\nset belief-probability 0.7\nrandom-seed 10\nsetup NIL 1 T OBSERVER NIL NIL NIL NIL 1 BUTTON 1095 380 1182 413 scenario 4 set products 30\nset max-price 1500\nset customers 100\nset max-budget 1500\nset max-desire-to-buy-threshold 50\nset positive-influencers 0.1\nset negative-influencers 0.5\nset radius-of-influence 3\nset belief-probability 0.7\nrandom-seed 10\nsetup NIL 1 T OBSERVER NIL NIL NIL NIL 1 @#$#@#$#@ ## WHAT IS IT? This project simulates the rise of a good as a best-seller in an enterprise. It makes use of consumer theory in Economics for some of the agent rules (e.g. preferences, utility, the Walras Law, etc.) specifically in the purchase of goods. This project also integrates a method for spreading information: word-of-mouth, to influence other consumers whether to buy a good or not. ## HOW IT WORKS The consumers are initially scattered around the waiting area between the two orange tables where the goods are placed. The consumers decide which goods to buy according to their budget and levels of desire for the goods. The level of desire is represented by the value of the "level" property in the links between the goods and consumers. A consumer would only buy a good if the "level" of desire for the good reaches a certain threshold. If they bought the good, then their desire for the good is diminished by one; buying it has quenched their desire for it. If for some situation they buy a good they have already bought during the day/tick, the desire for the good is penalized twice in the purchase. The consumer desires for the good less and less in application of the Economic theory of Diminishing Marginal Returns. For every good they buy, their utility (or happiness) is increased by the value of their desire for that good for the current day/tick. Note that utility resets every day. A plot is included in the interface to keep tabs of the average utility of the consumers in the model. They shop for the good(s) and travel back to a random spot in the waiting area once they have no more good they want to buy. If they decide not to buy anything at all, they just transfer to another blank spot in the waiting area. At setup, a consumer is tagged with a good they like, and tagged with another good they dislike. Their preferences do not change for the duration of the simulation. If during the shopping spree for the day/tick the consumer's shopping basket does not include the good they like, they are inclined to desire for it, increasing their level of desire for the good by one, by a certain probability. For each tick, the consumers are inclined to hate the good they dislike, decreasing the level of desire for the good by one, by a certain probability. After the shopping spree, a portion of the consumers discuss the goods which they like and dislike among the neighbors within a radius of influence. The influencer and the good they like turn green during this time if positive influence is being spread. On the other hand, the neighbor and the good they dislike turn red if negative influence is being spread. The neighbors within the radius of influence turn yellow. The neighbors then decide whether to take the word of the influencer, and have their desire for the discussed good be affected. The model assumes that the consumers keep a certain level of budget primarily for this enterprise, but because of the desire threshold, it does not necessarily mean that the entire budget would be depleted for the goods shown in the model. It could be assumed however, that any left over budget per tick is used to buy other goods not presented in the model and so is not carried over to the next tick. This is in application of the Economic theory of Walras Law which states that the optimal choice of a bundle of goods is equal or less than the budget. The enterprise showcases the best-seller as the good most bought in a certain period. The best-seller changes per period depending on which good sells the most during that time. The colors of the goods are scaled to reflect the number of times they became a best-seller: the darker shade of blue they are, the more times they have become a best-seller. Notice the set of numbers separated by commas on each good. The first one is the number of consumers who like the good, the next is the number of consumers who dislike the good, and the last is the price set for the good. Note that the number of likes and dislikes per good does not affect decision making and is just shown for ease in analysis. Similarly, a number is shown on top of each consumer. This shows the amount of money they can use to buy goods, and this diminishes for every purchase they make. This replenishes at the start of every tick. ## HOW TO USE IT Click the SETUP button to set up the goods (boxes on the orange patches), and the consumers (tan people). Click the GO button to start the simulation. Click the RESET-TRANSACTIONS button to restart the simulation without changing the goods and consumers, as well as their properties from the previous setup like the price, budget, desire thresholds, likes, and dislikes. The PRODUCTS slider controls how many goods are in the simulation. This can be set from from 2 to 30 (Note: Changes in the PRODUCTS slider does not take effect until the next SETUP) The MAX-PRICE slider controls the possible prices tagged to the goods. The prices tagged would be between 50 and the MAX-PRICE, inclusive, at intervals of 5. (e.g. if set to 65, each of the goods are tagged randomly with one of the prices: 50, 55, 60 and 65). If you set the MAX-PRICE slider to 50, all the goods will be priced 50. The MAX-PRICE slider can be set from 50 to 1500 in increments of 5. (Note: Changes in the MAX-PRICE slider does not take effect until the next SETUP) The CUSTOMERS slider controls how many consumers are in the simulation. The CUSTOMERS slider can be set from 1 to 300. (Note: Changes in the CUSTOMERS slider does not take effect until the next SETUP) The MAX-BUDGET slider controls the possible budget values given to the consumers. The amount of budget would be between 50 and the MAX-BUDGET, inclusive, at intervals of 5. (e.g. if set to 65, each consumer is randomly assigned one of the values: 50, 55, 60 and 65, as their budget). If you set the MAX-BUDGET slider to 50, all the consumers will have a budget of 50. (Note: Changes in the MAX-BUDGET slider does not take effect until the next SETUP) The INCLINATION-PROBABILITY slider controls the chances of a consumer's desires for their likes and dislikes to change intrinsically. It is the probability to have the level of desire for the good they like increase by one if they were not able to purchase it in the previous tick, as well as the probability to have the desire for the good they dislike decrease by one for every tick. The MAX-DESIRE-TO-BUY-THRESHOLD slider controls the set of possible thresholds for each consumer to incline them to buy. (e.g. if set to 50, a consumer's threshold could be a value from 0 to 49). Their level of desire must exceed this value to qualify for a purchase. The MAX-DESIRE-TO-BUY-THRESHOLD slider can be set from 1 to 100 (Note: Changes in the MAX-DESIRE-TO-BUY-THRESHOLD slider does not take effect until the next SETUP) The SHOW-DESIRES? switch makes the links (desires) between goods and consumers visible. (Note: Changes in the SHOW-DESIRES switch does not take effect until the next SETUP or RESET-TRANSACTIONS)' The POSITIVE-INFLUENCERS slider controls the portion of the consumers that will spread good news about the goods they like. A different set of consumers are chosen per tick. The NEGATIVE-INFLUENCERS slider controls the portion of the consumers that will spread bad news about the goods they dislike. A different set of consumers are chosen per tick. The RADIUS-OF-INFLUENCE slider controls the size of the circle within which an influencer can spread news to other consumers regarding their preferences. The BELIEF-PROBABILITY slider controls the probability that a consumer will believe an influencer once the former is within within the latter's radius of influence. The PERIOD-IN-DAYS chooser controls how many days/ticks long an evaluation period for the best-seller is. The SMOOTHING-WINDOW input takes in a number which would be the length of the span for the moving average in the average utility plot. This is for visualization of the utility property of the consumers in the model. ## THINGS TO NOTICE With the varying parameters set in the model, would you expect a good to be hailed as a best-seller consistently through multiple periods of evaluation? If so, what are the properties evident for this good in the model? If not, what causes this variability such that no one good is consistently a best-seller? Notice that the spread of information from one consumer to another is not through a network for this model. While creating a network is the more realistic approach in the spread of information, the version shown here returns properties for the best-seller that are quite appealing for Economic theories. Despite not being a factor to answering the primary questions, a plot to show average utility is included. Notice how this is affected when you change the various parameters. Are the people getting too happy in this model? Or does it sustain over time? ## THINGS TO TRY Included in the interface are three buttons (SCENARIO 1, SCENARIO 2, and SCENARIO 3) which lets you experiment on different levels of MAX-PRICE, while other parameters are held constant. The seed is set to 10 for these scenarios to maintain property values. Click on a scenario to setup the model and press GO to start the simulation for each scenario. For SCENARIO 1, the MAX-PRICE is set to 50. In this scenario we see that all goods are priced equally. Notice that the best-seller is unstable between GOOD 2 and GOOD 14. This is because the same number of people likes and dislikes them, and their price is equal each other. For SCENARIO 2, we set the MAX-PRICE to 800, introducing a property that is different between GOOD 2 and GOOD 14. GOOD 14 becomes the best-seller for the most part since it is the cheaper choice of the two. For SCENARIO 3, we set the MAX-PRICE to 1500. In this scenario, GOOD 2 and GOOD 14 have become too expensive for our population, and the best-seller came out to be GOOD 3. A fourth scenario, SCENARIO 4, is included to help you experiment with the POSITIVE-INFLUENCERS. This has parameters similar to SCENARIO 3, but with the POSITIVE-INFLUENCERS slider set at 0.10. The choice for the best-seller is more variable for this scenario compared to the other 3, however, do note that if you ran this for a long time, GOOD 11 comes out to be the good that becomes the best-seller the most. Notice that GOOD 11 is much more expensive than GOOD 3, and GOOD 3 has more people liking it. What could be the reason for GOOD 11 rising as the best-seller often? Try to experiment on the different parameters. You may use the RESET-TRANSACTIONS button to restart the simulation without changing the goods and consumers, as well as their properties from the previous setup like the price, budget, desire thresholds, likes, and dislikes. Ultimately, this is used to see how their position in the waiting area, the word-of-mouth variables, or their INCLINATION-PROBABILITY affects the outcome. ## EXTENDING THE MODEL For the extension, the user may like to set the inclination to like and dislike goods different for each consumer. The usage of a network is also a property that could be introduced into the model. 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