patches-own [ co2 ;; amount of co2 on this patch o2 ;; amount of o2 on this patch temp ;; temp on this patch ] turtles-own [my-temp age x-origin y-origin home-range temp-diff wisdom] globals [initial-temp max-temp min-temp max-factory min-factory max-forest min-forest action-timer ] breed [ climate-scientist ] breed [anti-scientist] breed [ citizen ] breed [ forest ] breed [ factory ] breed [policy-makers] ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; ;;; Setup procedures ;;; ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; to setup clear-all set-default-shape policy-makers "building institution" create-policy-makers 1 [ set size 1 set color gray ] set-default-shape climate-scientist "citizen student" create-climate-scientist no-of-climate-scientists [ set size 2 set color black ] set-default-shape anti-scientist "person lumberjack" create-anti-scientist no-of-anti-scientists [ set size 3 set color black ] set-default-shape citizen "citizen" create-citizen no-of-citizens [ set size 2 set color black]; set-default-shape factory "house colonial" create-factory initial-no-of-factories [ set size 2 set color red ] set-default-shape forest "forest" create-forest initial-no-of-forests [ set size 2 set color green ] ask policy-makers [setxy max-pxcor max-pycor] ask factory [setxy random-xcor random-ycor] ask forest [setxy random-xcor random-ycor] ask climate-scientist [set x-origin random-xcor set y-origin random-ycor setxy x-origin y-origin ] ask anti-scientist [set x-origin random-xcor set y-origin random-ycor setxy x-origin y-origin ] ask citizen [set x-origin random-xcor set y-origin random-ycor setxy x-origin y-origin set wisdom random-normal mean-public-wisdom 0.25] set max-factory initial-no-of-factories set min-factory initial-no-of-factories set max-forest initial-no-of-forests set min-forest initial-no-of-forests setup-patches reset-ticks set initial-temp 25 set min-temp initial-temp set min-temp 25 set max-temp 25 end to setup-patches ask patches [ recolor-patch ] end to recolor-patch ;; patch procedure if temp >= 25 [ set pcolor scale-color red (co2 - o2) 10 0.1 ] if temp < 25 [ set pcolor scale-color blue (o2 - co2) 10 0.1 ] end ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; ;;; Go procedures ;;; ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; to go ;; forever button if not any? citizen [ stop ] if not any? climate-scientist [ stop ] if not any? forest [ stop ] if ticks = stop-experiment [stop] ask factory [ set co2 co2 + 1 set o2 o2 - 1 if o2 < 0 [set o2 0] set age age + 1 if age > 500 + random 100 [hatch 1 [setxy random-xcor random-ycor set age 0 set size 2 set color red] ; move factories around die] ] diffuse co2 1 ask forest [set o2 o2 + 1 set co2 co2 - 1 if co2 < 0 [set co2 0] set age age + 1 if age > 500 + random 100 [hatch 1 [setxy random-xcor random-ycor set age 0 set size 2 set color green] die] ] diffuse o2 1 if action-timer < 1 [ask policy-makers [ if decision-making-system = "climate-scientist quorum" and count climate-scientist with [color = red] >= quorum-threshold and ticks > 1 ; plant forests and demolish factories occasionally [hatch-forest 1 [ setxy random-xcor random-ycor set age 0 set size 2 set color green set action-timer action-interval] if count factory > 1 [ask one-of factory [die]] ] if decision-making-system = "climate-scientist quorum" and count climate-scientist with [color = blue] >= quorum-threshold and ticks > 1 ; build factories and chop down forests forests occasionally [hatch-factory 1 [setxy random-xcor random-ycor set size 2 set color red set action-timer action-interval] if count forest > 1 [ask one-of forest [die]] ] ;climate-scientists are excluded from the majority vote because they form such a negligable proportion of citizens in real life if decision-making-system = "public majority" and count citizen with [color = red] / count citizen > (majority-threshold / 100) and ticks > 1 ; plant forests and demolish factories occasionally [hatch-forest 1 [ setxy random-xcor random-ycor set age 0 set size 2 set color green set action-timer action-interval ] if count factory > 1 [ask one-of factory [die]] ] if decision-making-system = "public majority" and count citizen with [color = blue] / count citizen > (majority-threshold / 100) and ticks > 1 ; build factories and chop down forests forests occasionally [hatch-factory 1 [setxy random-xcor random-ycor set size 2 set color red set action-timer action-interval] if count forest > 1 [ask one-of forest [die]] ] ] ] ask climate-scientist [ set home-range science-dissemination move if ticks mod scientist-collection-interval = 0 [collect-data] ; determines interval between data collection ] ask anti-scientist [ set home-range anti-science-dissemination move if count climate-scientist with [color = blue] >= quorum-threshold [set color red] if count climate-scientist with [color = red] >= quorum-threshold [set color blue] ] ask citizen [ ;mean public wisdom low if count anti-scientist-here with [color = red] > 0 and wisdom <= -0.67 [set color red] if count anti-scientist-here with [color = blue] > 0 and wisdom <= -0.67 [set color blue] ;mean public wisdom high if count climate-scientist-here > 0 and count climate-scientist with [color = red] >= quorum-threshold and wisdom >= 0.67 [set color red] if count climate-scientist-here > 0 and count climate-scientist with [color = blue] >= quorum-threshold and wisdom >= 0.67 [set color blue] if count climate-scientist-here > 0 and count climate-scientist with [color = black] >= (no-of-climate-scientists - quorum-threshold) and wisdom >= 0.67 [set color black] ;mean public wisdom intermediate if count anti-scientist-here with [color = red] > 0 and wisdom > -0.67 and wisdom < 0.67 [set color red] if count anti-scientist-here with [color = blue] > 0 and wisdom > -0.67 and wisdom < 0.67 [set color blue] if count anti-scientist-here with [color = black] > 0 and wisdom > -0.67 and wisdom < 0.67 [set color black] if count climate-scientist-here > 0 and count climate-scientist with [color = red] >= quorum-threshold and wisdom > -0.67 and wisdom < 0.67 [set color red] if count climate-scientist-here > 0 and count climate-scientist with [color = blue] >= quorum-threshold and wisdom > -0.67 and wisdom < 0.67 [set color blue] ] ask patches [set temp co2 / 8 - o2 / 8 + 25 recolor-patch ] ; temperature not solely dependent on forests and factories if max-temp < mean [temp] of patches [set max-temp mean [temp] of patches] if min-temp > mean [temp] of patches [set min-temp mean [temp] of patches] if count factory > max-factory [ set max-factory count factory] if count factory < min-factory [ set min-factory count factory] if count forest > max-forest [ set max-forest count forest] if count forest < min-forest [ set min-forest count forest] set action-timer action-timer - 1 tick end ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; ;;; Sub-routines ;;; ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; to add-factory hatch-factory 1 [setxy random-xcor random-ycor set size 2 set color red set action-timer action-interval] if count forest > 1 [ask one-of forest [die]] end to add-forest hatch-forest 1 [ setxy random-xcor random-ycor set age 0 set size 2 set color green set action-timer action-interval] if count factory > 1 [ask one-of factory [die]] end to move rt random-float 90 - random-float 90 fd 1 if xcor > x-origin + home-range [set xcor x-origin + home-range] ; keep individual within home range if xcor < x-origin - home-range [set xcor x-origin - home-range] if ycor > y-origin + home-range [set ycor y-origin + home-range] if ycor < y-origin - home-range [set ycor y-origin - home-range] end to collect-data set my-temp [temp] of patch-here set temp-diff my-temp - initial-temp if temp-diff >= temperature-threshold [set color red] if temp-diff < temperature-threshold and temp-diff > temperature-threshold * -1 [set color black]; undecided catgeory if temp-diff <= temperature-threshold * -1 [set color blue] end to-report average-temp report mean [temp] of patches end @#$#@#$#@ GRAPHICS-WINDOW 469 28 985 565 35 35 7.13 1 10 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 -35 35 -35 35 1 1 1 ticks 30.0 BUTTON 11 10 66 43 NIL setup NIL 1 T OBSERVER NIL NIL NIL NIL 1 BUTTON 80 11 135 44 NIL go T 1 T OBSERVER NIL NIL NIL NIL 1 SLIDER 12 82 228 115 initial-no-of-factories initial-no-of-factories 0.0 100 55 1.0 1 NIL HORIZONTAL PLOT 6 364 466 608 The response to climate NIL NIL 0.0 10.0 0.0 10.0 true true "" "" PENS "Mean temperature" 1.0 0 -16777216 true "" "plot mean [temp] of patches" "Scientist - perceivers" 1.0 0 -14070903 true "" "if count climate-scientist > 0 [plot 100 * count climate-scientist with [color = red] / count climate-scientist ]" "Citizen - perceivers" 1.0 0 -1184463 true "" "if count citizen > 0 [plot 100 * count citizen with [color = red] / count citizen]" "Forests" 1.0 0 -13840069 true "" "plot count forest" "Factories" 1.0 0 -2674135 true "" "plot count factory" SLIDER 12 48 228 81 initial-no-of-forests initial-no-of-forests 0 100 45 1 1 NIL HORIZONTAL SLIDER 12 221 228 254 no-of-climate-scientists no-of-climate-scientists 0 100 20 1 1 NIL HORIZONTAL BUTTON 150 10 205 43 go once go NIL 1 T OBSERVER NIL NIL NIL NIL 1 MONITOR 298 315 348 360 Mean T mean [temp] of patches 1 1 11 SLIDER 249 195 450 228 no-of-citizens no-of-citizens 0 200 200 1 1 NIL HORIZONTAL SLIDER 12 325 228 358 scientist-collection-interval scientist-collection-interval 1 1000 1 1 1 NIL HORIZONTAL SLIDER 250 232 450 265 science-dissemination science-dissemination 1 20 10 1 1 NIL HORIZONTAL MONITOR 244 314 294 359 Initial T initial-temp 0 1 11 MONITOR 353 315 407 360 NIL max-temp 1 1 11 MONITOR 413 315 463 360 NIL min-temp 1 1 11 SLIDER 12 256 228 289 quorum-threshold quorum-threshold 1 50 4 1 1 NIL HORIZONTAL CHOOSER 12 151 227 196 decision-making-system decision-making-system "climate-scientist quorum" "public majority" 0 SLIDER 246 88 451 121 majority-threshold majority-threshold 50 100 50 1 1 % HORIZONTAL SLIDER 245 22 449 55 stop-experiment stop-experiment 1 500001 500000 10000 1 NIL HORIZONTAL SLIDER 12 116 228 149 action-interval action-interval 1 1000 500 1 1 NIL HORIZONTAL SLIDER 12 290 228 323 temperature-threshold temperature-threshold 0.1 3 0.5 0.1 1 NIL HORIZONTAL SLIDER 247 124 451 157 mean-public-wisdom mean-public-wisdom -1 1 0 .1 1 NIL HORIZONTAL SLIDER 249 271 452 304 anti-science-dissemination anti-science-dissemination 0 20 20 1 1 NIL HORIZONTAL SLIDER 248 159 451 192 no-of-anti-scientists no-of-anti-scientists 0 10 2 1 1 NIL HORIZONTAL TEXTBOX 280 64 457 82 Public majority variables 13 0.0 1 TEXTBOX 24 199 246 237 Climate scientist quorum variables 13 0.0 1 @#$#@#$#@ ## WHAT IS IT? This model is inspired by Tom Seeley's work on the decision-making system of honeybees. It explores the impact of decision-making systems and science and anti-science dissemination on climate change. ## HOW IT WORKS Humans have founded a colony on a new planet. Earth has overheated. The cause is disputed, but now they have a chance to start afresh. On this planet the oxygen produced by forests and the carbon dioxide produced by factories diffuse slowly through the atmosphere producing pockets of the gases. There are three kinds of human agents - climate scientists, anti-scientists and citizens. Climate scientists collect temperature data. The user can choose between two decision-making systems. In the case of climate scientist quorum, the system is modelled after honeybees. When a quorum of scientists agree that climate change is happening, policy makers agree to either plant more forests and demolish factories or the other way around depending on the direction of temperature change. In the case of public majority, there has to be a majority consensus before action is taken. ## HOW TO USE IT Click the SETUP button to set up the world. Click the GO button to start the simulation. Choose the decision-making system. The action-interval sets the interval before the next action can take place. The smaller this number the more vigorous is the response to climate change. The quorum-threshold sets the number of scientists that must agree that climate change is taking place (in whichever direction) before action is taken. The temperature-threshold, in degrees, sets how much of temperature difference must take place before climate change is perceived by the climate scientists. The scientist-collection-interval sets the interval between which temperature data collection takes place. These two variables effectively determine how good a job the climate scientists are doing. Note that if climate-scientist quorum is chosen as the decision-making system then the public majority variables do not apply. The majority-threshold sets the proportion of citizens that must agree that climate change is taking place before action is taken. Mean public wisdom sets the mean of a normal distribution for wisdom for citizens. Individuals with a wisdom value of 0.67 or more always defer to climate scientists. Individuals with wisdom value of -0.67 or less always defer to anti-scientists (the outcome is obvious, but is left in for completeness). Individuals with an in-beween value are equally persuaded by scientists and anti-scientists. Science-dissemination sets how mobile scientists are and hence, in effect, how well they are popularising the state of the climate. Anti-scientists take the contrary position to scientists. When anti-science dissemination is set high anti-scientists are effective in popularising their contrary position. If public wisdom is set high then the anti-science dissemination value does not apply. The default value for dissemination is set higher for anti-science than science to reflect the situation in the real world. In the context of global warming, Lord Christopher Monckton has one hundred times the presence on YouTube as John Houghton in the context of global warming. Monckton has been deacribed world’s leading global warming sceptic. However, his credentials are in journalism and classics and he has not even published one peer-reviewed scientific paper, let alone in climate science. Houghton is professor of atmospheric physics at Oxford University and co-chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) scientific assessment working group. The IPCC is a body of thousands of scientists comprehensively assessing the risk of climate change. Scientist and citizen-perceivers plots the percentage of scientists and citizen that accept that global warming is taking place respectively. Initial-T is the initial and ideal temperature. Mean-T is the mean actual temperature of patches. ## THINGS TO NOTICE Much needs to be in place in order to deal effectively with climate change, otherwise climate could oscillate wildly. Whatever the decision-making system, the data gathering has to be good and action-interval needs to be appropriate. If the public majority system is chosen, then a lot more needs to be in place. Even if public wisdom is high, science dissemination needs to be high. If public wisdom is intermediate, then science dissemination needs to be much higher still, especially if there are anti-scientists around and especially if anti-science dissemination is high. ## EXTENDING THE MODEL There is no tipping point in this model. One way to implement this would be to have forests die off if the temperature is too high. ## NETLOGO FEATURES The diffuse primitive is used to diffuse oxygen and carbon dioxide. The random-normal function is used to create a public with a normal distribution of wisdom. ## BIBLIOGRAPHY Seeley, T. D. (2010) Honeybee Democracy. Princeton University Press, Princeton. Seeley, T. (2010) The Five Habits of Highly Effective Honeybees. Princeton University Press, Princeton ## Author information Mike L Anderson Email: mike@mikelanderson.com ## COPYRIGHT AND LICENSE Copyright 2012 Mike L Anderson ![CC BY-NC-SA 3.0](http://i.creativecommons.org/l/by-nc-sa/3.0/88x31.png) This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 License. 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