;; define global variables globals [ maxGrassAge biomeMinP biomeMinT biomeMaxT climateP climateT patchCount Fire_Speed F_Tundra F_Boreal F_Grass F_Decid Ma_Tundra Ma_Boreal Ma_Grass Ma_Decid ] ;; create breeds breed [fires fire] breed [embers ember] ;; define patch-specific variables patches-own [ Ecotype ;; Ecosystem type. 0 = bare ground, 1=tundra, 2 = boreal forest, 3 = grassland 4 = deciduous forest. BaseColor ;; base color of patch (actual color darkens with age) Fmax ;; Maximum patch flammability (actual flammability increases with age) F ;; Actual flammability -- probability of igniting given an ignition source (lightning or fire spread) Am ;; Mature patch age (dictates how quickly patch color and flammability increase) A ;; Current age of patch T_offset ;; patch-specific offset from user-defined T (for simulating spatially-variable climate) P_offset ;; patch-specific offset from user-defined P (for simulating spatially-variable climate) ] ;; Methods to setup ;; initializes the landscape to start or restart EcoSimple clear-all ;; clear everything set-default-shape turtles "square" ;; make square turtles so they look like patches setVars ;; set all variables ask patches [ ;; initialize patches set A 1 ;; set age to 1 to allow growFromBare to work growFromBare ;; grow ecosystems according to growFromBare set A Am ;; start all patches at their mature age ] end to go ;; run model set_fire ;; fires burn grow ;; patches grow grassToForest ;; grassland that hasn't burned for several years may grow into forest (succession) killBiome ;; biomes that have been in an intolerable climate for too long die calcClimate ;; climate is computed from T and P of the last 30 years ;; Spread the flammability of new patches about (e.g. forest in the midst of grass is more flammable) diffuse F 0.5 ask patches with [Ecotype = 0] [set F 0] ; but bare ground should never burn... drawPlot ;; plot results from this year tick ;; go to next year end to grow ;; grows all patches ;; Bare patches need to turn into a real ecosystem type ask patches with [Ecotype = 0] [ growFromBare ] ;; Then all patches get older, and their color and flammability changes accordingly ask patches [ set A (A + 1) set_color set_F ] end to grassToForest ;; Grassland becomes forest after several years without fire (defined by maxGrassAge) ask patches with [(Ecotype = 3) and (A > maxGrassAge)] [ growFromBare ] end to growFromBare ;; bare ground becomes a new ecosystem ;; First, get a new, random climate offset if Climate_Variability is turned on ifelse Climate_Variability [ set P_offset (random-normal 0 5) set T_offset (random-normal 0 0.5) ][ ;; if Climate_Variability is off, then offsets equal 0, so every patch has exact user-defined climate set P_offset 0 set T_offset 0 ] ;; Try becoming each biome type. The order of these four lines can make a big difference. become_tundra become_boreal become_grass become_decid set_color ;; Finally, set correct pixel color end to killBiome ;; Biomes that have been living in too-harsh conditions for past 30 years can't make it foreach [1 2 3 4] [ ask patches with [Ecotype = ?] [ if ( ((T_offset + mean(climateT)) > ((item ? biomeMaxT) + 0.0)) or ((T_offset + mean(climateT)) < ((item ? biomeMinT) - 0.0)) or ((P_offset + mean(climateP)) < ((item ? biomeMinP) - 0)) ) [ set pcolor brown become_bare ]]] end to calcClimate ;; "Climate" is defined over the past 30 years. ;; This prevents whole biomes from dying instantly after a single harsh year. ;; The variables climateP and climateT keep track of last 30 years of temp and precip set climateP but-first (lput P climateP) ;; add this year's P to climateP, get rid of the first set climateT but-first (lput T climateT) ;; add this year's T to climateT, get rid of the first end to become_tundra ;; Attempt to become a tundra pixel ;; To do so, T and P in the pixel must be within the appropriate limits if ( ((T_offset + T) <= (item 1 biomeMaxT)) and ((T_offset + T) >= (item 1 biomeMinT)) and ((P_offset + P) >= (item 1 biomeMinP)) ) [ set Ecotype 1 set BaseColor 126 set Fmax F_Tundra set Am Ma_Tundra ] end to become_boreal ;; Attempt to become a boreal forest pixel ;; To do so, T and P in the pixel must be within the appropriate limits if ( ((T_offset + T) <= (item 2 biomeMaxT)) and ((T_offset + T) >= (item 2 biomeMinT)) and ((P_offset + P) >= (item 2 biomeMinP)) ) [ set Ecotype 2 set BaseColor 106 set Fmax F_Boreal set Am Ma_Boreal ] end to become_grass ;; Attempt to become a grassland pixel ;; To do so, T and P in the pixel must be within the appropriate limits if ( ((T_offset + T) <= (item 3 biomeMaxT)) and ((T_offset + T) >= (item 3 biomeMinT)) and ((P_offset + P) >= (item 3 biomeMinP)) ) [ set Ecotype 3 set BaseColor 46 set Fmax F_Grass set Am Ma_Grass ] end to become_decid ;; Attempt to become a deciduous forest pixel ;; To do so, T and P in the pixel must be within the appropriate limits if ( ((T_offset + T) <= (item 4 biomeMaxT)) and ((T_offset + T) >= (item 4 biomeMinT)) and ((P_offset + P) >= (item 4 biomeMinP)) ) [ set Ecotype 4 set BaseColor 56 set Fmax F_Decid set Am Ma_Decid ] end to become_bare ;; Become bare ground, for example after fire or climate-induced death set Ecotype 0 set Fmax 0 set A 0 set Am 1 end to set_color ;; set pixel color based on ecosystem type and age ifelse Ecotype > 0 [ ;; Ecosystem patches darken with age set pcolor (BaseColor - (3 * A) / (Am + A) + 1.5) ][ if A >= 1 [set pcolor brown] ; burned patches turn brown after a year ] end to set_F ifelse Ecotype > 0 [set F ((Fmax * A) / (Am + A)) ] [set F 0] end ;; Fire methods to set_fire ;; cause ignitions (unless fire-suppression is turned on) if not (Suppress_Fire) [ ask n-of 10 patches [ ;; choose 10 patches to attempt to ignite if (random-float 1) < F [ ;; each one ignites with probability equal to patch variable F ignite ]] ] if mouse-down? [ ask patch mouse-xcor mouse-ycor [ignite] ] ;; also start fire where user clicks while [any? turtles] [;; If there are any fires or embers ;; first, have fires try to spread ask fires [ ask neighbors4 [ if A != 0 [ ;; probability of igniting from a neighbor pixel is the square root of patch variable F if (random-float 1) < (sqrt F) [ ignite ] ] ] set breed embers ;; after spreading, a "fire" turtle is now an "ember" ] ;; then burn embers down ask embers [ set color color - 0.3 ;; make red darker if color < red - 3.5 [die] ;; almost to black? then kill the ember ] wait (10 ^ (-2 * Fire_Speed)) ;; wait a bit so that we can see the fire animation ] end to ignite ;; a fire starts! sprout-fires 1 [set color red] ;; create the fire turtle set pcolor black ;; turn the burned patch black become_bare ;; and become bare ground end to drawPlot ;; Plot the abundance of all ecosystem types set-current-plot "Ecosystem Types" set-current-plot-pen "Bare ground" plot 100 * (count patches with [Ecotype = 0]) / patchCount set-current-plot-pen "Tundra" plot 100 * (count patches with [Ecotype = 1]) / patchCount set-current-plot-pen "Boreal Forest" plot 100 * (count patches with [Ecotype = 2]) / patchCount set-current-plot-pen "Temperate Forest" plot 100 * (count patches with [Ecotype = 4]) / patchCount set-current-plot-pen "Grassland" plot 100 * (count patches with [Ecotype = 3]) / patchCount end to setVars ;; set all variables at setup time ;; climate limits for each biome. Order = [bare tundra boreal grassland deciduous] set biomeMinP [-9999 5 35 15 50] set biomeMinT [-9999 -50 -5 3 3] set biomeMaxT [ 9999 3 5 25 25] ;; mature ages and flammabilities for each biome type set Ma_Tundra 400 set Ma_Boreal 100 set Ma_Grass 2 set Ma_Decid 100 set F_Tundra 0.05 set F_Boreal 0.5 set F_Grass 1 set F_Decid 0.1 ;; past 30 years of climate set intially equal to P and T at setup time set climateP (n-values 30 [P]) set climateT (n-values 30 [T]) ;; additional variables set patchCount (count patches) ;; number of patches set Fire_Speed 1.2 ;; speed of fire-spread animation set maxGrassAge 4 ;; how long a grass pixel can go without fire before succeeding to forest end @#$#@#$#@ GRAPHICS-WINDOW 330 36 744 471 50 50 4.0 1 10 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 -50 50 -50 50 0 0 1 year BUTTON 47 212 272 245 SETUP (start over) setup NIL 1 T OBSERVER NIL NIL NIL NIL BUTTON 47 248 272 281 GO (run model continuously) go T 1 T OBSERVER NIL NIL NIL NIL SLIDER 47 327 272 360 T T -10 20 10 .1 1 ¡C HORIZONTAL SLIDER 47 364 272 397 P P 0 200 100 1 1 cm HORIZONTAL PLOT 13 501 744 747 Ecosystem Types Time Percent 0.0 100.0 0.0 100.0 true true PENS "Tundra" 1.0 0 -5825686 true "Boreal Forest" 1.0 0 -13345367 true "Temperate Forest" 1.0 0 -10899396 true "Grassland" 1.0 0 -1184463 true "Bare ground" 1.0 0 -6459832 true SWITCH 47 401 272 434 Suppress_Fire Suppress_Fire 0 1 -1000 BUTTON 47 285 273 318 Step one year go NIL 1 T OBSERVER NIL NIL NIL NIL TEXTBOX 116 13 210 35 EcoSimple 18 0.0 1 TEXTBOX 19 44 310 212 Press SETUP then GO to run the model. Use the settings below to adjust climate (\"T\" for temperature, \"P\" for precipitation), control whether climate varies randomly across the landscape (\"Climate_Variability\"), and stop fires by turning on fire suppression (\"Suppress_Fire\"). Use the \"Step one year\" button to watch the model in slo-mo. You can also click the map to start fires (even with suppression turned on). Model results are summarized in the plot below, and details about how the model works are in the \"Information\" tab at the top of the window. 11 0.0 1 SWITCH 47 438 272 471 Climate_Variability Climate_Variability 1 1 -1000 @#$#@#$#@ WHAT IS IT? ----------- EcoSimple is an ecosystem model in which climate and interactive ecosystem processes dictate the relative abundance of biome types. HOW IT WORKS ------------ There are four biomes in this version of EcoSimple: tundra, boreal forest, grassland, and deciduous forest. Each biome has limits on the climate it can tolerate (for example, tundra can't grow if it gets too warm), and if an ecosystem pixel is outside of these limits too long, it will die. Pixels can also die if they are burned by wildfire, which is more likely in some biome types than others. Probability of fire increases with age (to simulate increasing fuel load), and fires can be prevented to simulate fire suppression by human beings. Dead pixels regrow into an appropriate ecosystem type based on climate. Finally, the grassland biome is special in that it will tend to turn into a forest after several years if no fire occurs. HOW TO USE IT ------------- Press 'Setup' to initialize the landscape, and 'Go' to run the model continuously (rate can be adjusted using the speed slider at top). You can also use the 'Step one year' button to run the model one year at a time. Climate is controlled by the Temperature ('T') and Precipitation ('P') sliders. In addition, 'Climate_Variability' can be turned on or off. When it is off, every pixel has exactly the climate prescribed by the 'T' and 'P' sliders. When 'Climate_Variability' is on, the climate of individual pixels is somewhat random, such that the average climate of the landscape will correspond to user 'T' and 'P' settings, but different biome types will occur in different pixels. Fire occurs at random as long as 'Suppress_Fire' is turned off, with probability of fire depending on ecosystem type and age. You can also force an ignition at a particular point by clicking there. SOME RECOMMENDED SCENARIOS TO SIMULATE ------------- a) Arctic warming (T = 2.0¡C; P = 50 cm; Suppress_Fire = OFF; Climate_Variability = ON) - The arctic is expected to warm ~5¡C by 2100 AD. Starting with the typical boreal climate defined above, gradually increase temperature by 5¡C over roughly 100 years. b) Fire Suppression (T = 2.0¡C; P = 50 cm; Suppress_Fire = OFF; Climate_Variability = ON) - These days, humans manage many natural wildfires to protect property and to achieve desired ecological results. One important consideration for fire managers is that forests tend to become more flammable as they age, due to the accumulation of dead fuel wood. Let the model spin up, then turn fire suppression off for about 50 years, then let a fire start. You may need to slow down the model (slider at top) or run it one step at a time (unclick GO to pause, then use Òstep one yearÓ button). c) Delicate balance (T = 9.0¡C; P = 46 cm; Suppress_Fire = OFF; Climate_Variability = ON) - Ecosystems are not always controlled directy by climate. Observe the prairie-like ecosystem described above for awhile before briefly suppressing all fires (perhaps there were several very rainy years in a row). EXTENDING THE MODEL ------------------- This model could definitely be expanded in some very interesting ways. Try adding new biome types or developing more sophisticated and/or realistic interactions. For instance, EcoSimple currently does not account for seed dispersal or migration, and as a result you might have boreal forest suddenly appear in the middle of a grassland, even though realistically there's no good reason for a spruce cone to have landed there! CITING THIS MODEL ----------------- To refer to this model in academic publications, please use: Kelly, R. (2010). EcoSimple (NetLogo model). Department of Plant Biology, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL. In other publications, please use: EcoSimple, Copyright 2010 Ryan Kelly. All rights reserved. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ---------------- The visual technique for representing fire was borrowed from an existing NetLogo model: "Fire" Copyright 1997 Uri Wilensky. All rights reserved. See http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/models/Fire for terms of use. The model "Fire Ecology" (Copyright 2009 Ryan Kelly, available at http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/models/community/Fire%20Ecology) served as the precursor for EcoSimple. That model was designed as part of a National Science Foundation GK-12 fellowship, and owes many thanks to Susan Camasta and the 2008-09 Hinsdale South AP Environmental Science classes for testing and evaluation. 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